MoneyballAI
Find the biggest bargains in football
Not the best players — the players who may be worth more than they would cost. Every estimate is a range with a confidence level, explained, and backtested against what really happened.
Players in database
50,149
Players evaluated
4,684
3,216 with a Bargain Index
Bargain Radar · top potential bargains (age ≤ 26)
Open radar →20 · Central midfielder · Paris Saint-Germain · France
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Very High
- Market value
- €40.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €20.7M – €47.1M
- Model value
- €22.6M – €69.8M
- Projected (24m)
- €30.8M – €85.5M
- Potential value gap
- -€24.5M – €49.1M
Estimated acquisition€20.7M – €47.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€22.6M – €69.8M
Projected value (24 months)€30.8M – €85.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Performance-implied value in the top 12% of MID peers
- ✓ Strong for age (20): top 0% of same-age peers
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1682 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
21 · Right winger · Zorya Lugansk · Ukraine
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €800k
- Est. acquisition
- €273k – €813k
- Model value
- €521k – €1.3M
- Projected (24m)
- €532k – €2.3M
- Potential value gap
- -€292k – €986k
Estimated acquisition€273k – €813k
Model value (performance-implied)€521k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€532k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (87% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
24 · Striker · Avs Futebol · Portugal
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €250k
- Est. acquisition
- €93k – €284k
- Model value
- €352k – €738k
- Projected (24m)
- €202k – €400k
- Potential value gap
- €69k – €645k
Estimated acquisition€93k – €284k
Model value (performance-implied)€352k – €738k
Projected value (24 months)€202k – €400k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1291 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
20 · Striker · Vejle Boldklub · Denmark
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €3.5M
- Est. acquisition
- €0 – €2.3M
- Model value
- €206k – €634k
- Projected (24m)
- €2.5M – €7.8M
- Potential value gap
- -€2.1M – €634k
Estimated acquisition€0 – €2.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€206k – €634k
Projected value (24 months)€2.5M – €7.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 976 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
Transfer opportunities
Top 200 by Bargain Index: projected value vs estimated cost.
Above the dashed line = projected value exceeds acquisition estimate. Best targets sit top-left: high projected value, low cost.
Breakout Radar
All →Young players whose profile resembles players whose value later doubled.
| Player | Age | Value | Breakout prob. | BI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Mbaye Right winger | 18 | €30.0M | 69% | 68/100 |
| Ruud Nijstad Centre-back | 18 | €10.0M | 58% | 36/100 |
| Sean Steur Central midfielder | 18 | €7.0M | 52% | 83/100 |
| Adam Karabec Attacking midfielder | 23 | €7.0M | 47% | 63/100 |
| Jayden Meghoma Left-back | 20 | €2.0M | 47% | 86/100 |
| Thomas Jørgensen Central midfielder | 20 | €5.0M | 46% | 81/100 |
League opportunities
Explorer →Share of evaluated players with Bargain Index ≥ 90.
| League | Strength | Top-decile share |
|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie Netherlands | 0.43 | 16% (55) |
| Premier Liga Ukraine | 0.25 | 15% (49) |
| Superliga Denmark | 0.47 | 15% (30) |
| Scottish Premiership Scotland | 0.31 | 14% (35) |
| Super League 1 Greece | 0.43 | 11% (29) |
| Liga Portugal Portugal | 0.58 | 10% (37) |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.