Thorgan Hazard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Thorgan Hazard's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.60x the positional average in the league (2213 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2213 (82% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.81
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.64
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1369
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €465k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 57 pts; team strength down (-82 Elo); relative output up 90% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -68% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 60 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–142%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 72%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 27 | 2213 | 82% | 12 | 8 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 1369 | 1393 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 11 | 673 | 25% | 2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.33 | 1375 | 1476 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 19 | 1381 | 51% | 4 | 6 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 1360 | 1516 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 1 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1476 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 14 | 455 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1544 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | LW | 9 | 236 | 8% | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1329 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 23 | 1337 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 1481 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 16 | 654 | 21% | 1 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.32 | 1537 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LW | 33 | 2392 | 78% | 7 | 13 | 0.75 | 0.43 | 1527 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 33 | 2878 | 94% | 10 | 11 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 1511 | 1528 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 34 | 2947 | 96% | 10 | 8 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 1513 | 1521 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 23 | 1632 | 53% | 6 | 4 | 0.55 | 0.41 | 1498 | 1549 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 1647 | 54% | 4 | 5 | 0.49 | 0.36 | 1487 | 1596 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LW | 28 | 905 | 30% | 1 | 7 | 0.80 | 0.51 | 1515 | 1645 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 29 | 2581 | 96% | 9 | 14 | 0.80 | 0.48 | 1339 | 1380 | 0.49 |
| 2012/13 | Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 24 | 1863 | 69% | 3 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 1385 | 1458 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | RSC Anderlecht | 9 | 509 | 1 | 0 | 1509 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 3 | 223 | 0 | 1 | 1424 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1292 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 4 | 191 | 0 | 1 | 1533 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 202 | 1 | 0 | 1629 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 102 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 82 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 109 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1633 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 444 | 1 | 2 | 1595 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 254 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 481 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 223 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 265 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 252 | 1 | 1 | 1781 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 156 | 3 | 2 | 1464 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 116 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 176 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 122 | 0 | 0 | 1735 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 7 | 540 | 1 | 3 | 1511 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 287 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1392 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Zulte Waregem | 6 | 489 | 2 | 1 | 1475 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 164 | 0 | 2 | 1400 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Holmén Super Lig · 2016 | 32 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Julien Féret Ligue 1 · 2015 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| André André Liga Portugal · 2021 | 32 | €2.5M | €400k | fell |
| Christophe Lepoint Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 32 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
| Younès Belhanda Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Romaric Ligue 1 · 2014 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Bojan Jokic Premier Liga · 2018 | 32 | €800k | €475k | fell |
| Jean-Jacques Gosso Super Lig · 2014 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | RSC Anderlecht | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 6 Sept 2023 | Dortmund | RSC Anderlecht | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | PSV | Dortmund | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Dortmund | PSV | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Mönchengladbach | Dortmund | €25.5M | €38.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Chelsea | Mönchengladbach | €8.0M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Mönchengladbach | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 5 Jul 2014 | Chelsea | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Zulte Waregem | Chelsea | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 31 Aug 2012 | Chelsea | Zulte Waregem | Free / loan | €500k |
| 24 Jul 2012 | Lens | Chelsea | €500k | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | RC Lens U19 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Tubize Yth. | RC Lens U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.