Breakout Radar
Players aged 23 or under whose profile (minutes, output, trajectory, age, value trend, context) resembles players whose market value later at least doubled within two years. This exhibits characteristics associated with historical breakout profiles — it does not mean a player will become a star.
How reliable is this? In walk-forward backtests the top 10% of breakout probabilities doubled in value 49% of the time, versus a 30% base rate for all young players. Most flagged players do not double.
| Player | Age | Pos | Breakout prob. | Development | Minutes | Market value | Est. acquisition | Projected (24m) | BI | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Mbaye Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1 | 18.4 | Right winger | 69% | Very High | 998 (33%) | €30.0M | €23.1M – €47.8M | €25.4M – €86.5M | 68/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Davinchi Getafe CF · Laliga | 18.7 | Left-back | 65% | Very High | 698 (20%) | €1.0M | €639k – €6.6M | €856k – €12.1M | No index | Risk: High |
| Aaron Bouwman Ajax Amsterdam · Eredivisie | 18.8 | Centre-back | 64% | Very High | 553 (18%) | €3.5M | €3.3M – €8.3M | €2.5M – €16.5M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Stephan Zagadou Le Havre AC · Ligue 1 | 17.7 | Centre-back | 64% | Very High | 498 (16%) | €4.0M | €3.5M – €17.8M | €2.3M – €16.8M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Marc Bernal FC Barcelona · Laliga | 19.1 | Defensive midfielder | 63% | Very High | 787 (23%) | €30.0M | €23.2M – €48.8M | €24.6M – €91.2M | No index | Risk: High |
| Luca Reggiani Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga | 18.5 | Centre-back | 62% | Very High | 513 (17%) | €10.0M | €7.2M – €33.8M | €6.9M – €44.5M | No index | Risk: High |
| Dimitrios Chatsidis Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton · Super League 1 | 20.1 | Right winger | 61% | Very High | 644 (28%) | €1.2M | €1.0M – €3.9M | €1.0M – €9.2M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Artem Stepanov FC Utrecht · Eredivisie | 18.9 | Striker | 59% | Very High | 817 (27%) | €5.0M | €3.2M – €9.0M | €3.3M – €16.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Dro Fernández Paris Saint-Germain · Ligue 1 | 18.5 | Attacking midfielder | 59% | Very High | 771 (23%) | €10.0M | €8.0M – €24.7M | €8.1M – €58.2M | No index | Risk: High |
| Nidal Celik RC Lens · Ligue 1 | 20.0 | Centre-back | 58% | Very High | 618 (20%) | €7.0M | €6.0M – €14.4M | €4.4M – €26.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Ruud Nijstad FC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie | 18.4 | Centre-back | 58% | Very High | 1675 (55%) | €10.0M | €8.6M – €23.9M | €7.6M – €32.1M | 36/100 | Risk: High |
| Timofey Marinkin FK Dinamo Moskva · Premier Liga | 18.1 | Central midfielder | 57% | Very High | 532 (20%) | €900k | €896k – €4.7M | €630k – €7.3M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Thijs Kraaijeveld Feyenoord Rotterdam · Eredivisie | 19.2 | Centre-back | 53% | Very High | 745 (24%) | €5.0M | €4.8M – €14.9M | €3.6M – €18.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Sean Steur Ajax Amsterdam · Eredivisie | 18.5 | Central midfielder | 52% | Very High | 1135 (37%) | €7.0M | €5.9M – €11.9M | €5.7M – €20.9M | 83/100 | Risk: High |
| Paco Cortés Levante UD · Laliga | 18.9 | Left winger | 52% | Very High | 471 (14%) | €1.5M | €1.5M – €9.2M | €946k – €8.3M | No index | Risk: High |
| Andrija Bulatovic RC Lens · Ligue 1 | 19.5 | Central midfielder | 51% | Very High | 753 (25%) | €8.0M | €6.8M – €16.8M | €5.2M – €29.5M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Billy van Duijl AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie | 20.7 | Centre-back | 50% | Very High | 585 (19%) | €1.5M | €1.1M – €3.7M | €950k – €5.8M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Adam Karabec Olympique Lyon · Ligue 1 | 23.0 | Attacking midfielder | 47% | High | 925 (30%) | €7.0M | €3.6M – €12.7M | €3.8M – €15.3M | 63/100 | Risk: High |
| Jonatan Lindekilde FC Fredericia · Superliga | 20.3 | Central midfielder | 47% | Very High | 460 (23%) | €550k | €271k – €1.3M | €377k – €1.9M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Jayden Meghoma Rangers FC · Scottish Premiership | 20.0 | Left-back | 47% | Very High | 2040 (69%) | €2.0M | €1.5M – €5.0M | €1.6M – €6.7M | 86/100 | Risk: High |
| Mikel Gogorza FC Midtjylland · Superliga | 19.8 | Left winger | 46% | Very High | 546 (28%) | €3.0M | €2.0M – €9.5M | €2.1M – €9.5M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Eivind Helland Bologna Football Club 1909 · Serie A | 21.2 | Centre-back | 46% | High | 488 (14%) | €8.0M | €6.2M – €15.1M | €4.3M – €25.4M | No index | Risk: High |
| Thomas Jørgensen Viborg FF · Superliga | 20.8 | Central midfielder | 46% | Very High | 1742 (88%) | €5.0M | €3.6M – €9.6M | €3.4M – €12.3M | 81/100 | Risk: High |
| Dimitrios Kaloskamis Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos · Super League 1 | 21.3 | Attacking midfielder | 46% | High | 605 (26%) | €1.8M | €1.0M – €4.2M | €1.1M – €7.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Julius Berthel Askou Odense Boldklub · Superliga | 20.1 | Centre-back | 45% | Very High | 1311 (66%) | €2.5M | €1.4M – €4.4M | €1.5M – €7.7M | 96/100 | Risk: Very High |
| Ibrahima Diaby Cercle Brugge · Jupiler Pro League | 19.3 | Defensive midfielder | 45% | Very High | 647 (24%) | €1.5M | €1.6M – €7.2M | €989k – €6.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Asker Beck Viborg FF · Superliga | 23.0 | Central midfielder | 45% | High | 708 (36%) | €600k | €268k – €1.1M | €435k – €1.2M | No index | Risk: High |
| Robin Mirisola KRC Genk · Jupiler Pro League | 19.6 | Striker | 45% | Very High | 828 (31%) | €4.0M | €3.4M – €12.3M | €2.5M – €14.3M | No index | Risk: High |
| Oumar Camara Vitória Guimarães SC · Liga Portugal | 19.1 | Left winger | 45% | Very High | 1504 (49%) | €8.0M | €7.1M – €16.4M | €5.5M – €24.3M | 28/100 | Risk: High |
| Kirill Danilov PFK CSKA Moskva · Premier Liga | 18.9 | Centre-back | 45% | Very High | 915 (34%) | €2.5M | €2.2M – €10.9M | €1.9M – €10.6M | 45/100 | Risk: Very High |
| Diego Rodrigues SC Braga · Liga Portugal | 21.1 | Central midfielder | 45% | High | 849 (28%) | €5.0M | €3.6M – €11.8M | €3.4M – €19.5M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Jakob Vester Viborg FF · Superliga | 21.6 | Central midfielder | 45% | High | 498 (25%) | €700k | €276k – €1.1M | €494k – €1.7M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Buba Sangaré Elche CF · Laliga | 18.9 | Right-back | 45% | Very High | 541 (16%) | €4.5M | €3.6M – €9.9M | €2.4M – €15.1M | No index | Risk: High |
| Mats Rots FC Twente Enschede · Eredivisie | 20.3 | Left-back | 44% | Very High | 2955 (97%) | €12.0M | €9.7M – €19.7M | €8.7M – €26.8M | 52/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Pedro Bravo FC Midtjylland · Superliga | 21.6 | Central midfielder | 44% | High | 1151 (58%) | €3.5M | €2.0M – €6.7M | €3.0M – €13.5M | 92/100 | Risk: High |
| Roggerio Nyakossi Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Jupiler Pro League | 22.5 | Centre-back | 44% | High | 1530 (57%) | €5.0M | €2.7M – €7.7M | €2.8M – €13.1M | 92/100 | Risk: High |
| Adem Arous Kasimpasa · Super Lig | 21.9 | Centre-back | 44% | High | 1672 (55%) | €4.0M | €2.2M – €6.5M | €2.1M – €9.9M | 58/100 | Risk: High |
| Ethan Mbappé LOSC Lille · Ligue 1 | 19.5 | Right winger | 44% | Very High | 559 (18%) | €8.0M | €6.3M – €14.5M | €4.7M – €21.0M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Jacob Ambæk Bröndby IF · Superliga | 18.3 | Striker | 44% | Very High | 950 (48%) | €4.0M | €4.2M – €14.3M | €2.7M – €15.7M | 17/100 | Risk: High |
| Nobel Mendy Rayo Vallecano · Laliga | 21.8 | Centre-back | 44% | High | 1804 (53%) | €7.5M | €5.4M – €13.1M | €5.2M – €25.3M | 93/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Kacper Potulski 1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga | 18.7 | Centre-back | 44% | Very High | 1060 (35%) | €18.0M | €15.3M – €32.8M | €12.6M – €40.9M | 51/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 · Bundesliga | 20.6 | Left winger | 44% | Very High | 2181 (71%) | €10.0M | €7.8M – €18.4M | €5.7M – €25.2M | 76/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Prince Amoako Junior FC Nordsjaelland · Superliga | 19.4 | Left winger | 43% | Very High | 1672 (84%) | €7.0M | €5.9M – €16.0M | €4.3M – €19.2M | 29/100 | Risk: High |
| Henrique Carmo PFK CSKA Moskva · Premier Liga | 19.6 | Right winger | 43% | Very High | 709 (26%) | €3.5M | €3.1M – €10.2M | €2.7M – €11.0M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Rafael Luís RC Strasbourg Alsace · Ligue 1 | 21.4 | Defensive midfielder | 43% | High | 585 (19%) | €5.0M | €3.7M – €13.0M | €2.8M – €17.2M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Chema Andrés VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga | 21.2 | Defensive midfielder | 43% | High | 1306 (43%) | €20.0M | €16.4M – €31.8M | €14.3M – €54.4M | 63/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Sabil Hansen Randers FC · Superliga | 20.6 | Right-back | 43% | Very High | 716 (36%) | €600k | €228k – €810k | €445k – €1.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Jan Ziolkowski Associazione Sportiva Roma · Serie A | 21.1 | Centre-back | 43% | High | 507 (15%) | €12.0M | €9.5M – €24.0M | €7.6M – €30.7M | No index | Risk: High |
| Moncef Zekri KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League | 17.8 | Left-back | 43% | Very High | 830 (31%) | €4.0M | €3.8M – €9.3M | €2.5M – €12.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Kader Meïté Stade Rennais FC · Ligue 1 | 18.7 | Striker | 43% | Very High | 530 (17%) | €18.0M | €15.5M – €34.9M | €10.0M – €41.7M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Tygo Land FC Groningen · Eredivisie | 20.5 | Central midfielder | 43% | Very High | 1533 (50%) | €2.5M | €1.0M – €3.1M | €1.5M – €6.3M | 100/100 | Risk: Very High |
| Edoardo Motta Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. · Serie A | 21.5 | Goalkeeper | 43% | High | 810 (24%) | €8.0M | €6.1M – €16.3M | €4.4M – €26.1M | No index | Risk: High |
| Henry Cartwright Falkirk FC · Scottish Premiership | 21.6 | Defensive midfielder | 42% | High | 1072 (36%) | €150k | €88k – €381k | €162k – €368k | No index | Risk: High |
| Matija Popović PFK CSKA Moskva · Premier Liga | 20.5 | Left winger | 42% | Very High | 461 (17%) | €1.8M | €1.1M – €4.7M | €1.1M – €7.8M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Nazar Domchak Karpaty Lviv · Premier Liga | 19.2 | Goalkeeper | 42% | Very High | 2430 (90%) | €4.0M | €3.9M – €8.7M | €2.4M – €11.8M | 54/100 | Risk: High |
| Mert Kömür FC Augsburg · Bundesliga | 21.0 | Attacking midfielder | 42% | Very High | 1463 (48%) | €12.0M | €9.0M – €19.0M | €7.4M – €25.4M | 77/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Mathis Servais KV Mechelen · Jupiler Pro League | 21.6 | Left midfielder | 41% | High | 1928 (71%) | €4.0M | €2.6M – €8.1M | €2.3M – €12.6M | 63/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Colby Donovan Celtic FC · Scottish Premiership | 19.8 | Right-back | 41% | Very High | 618 (21%) | €1.5M | €1.3M – €6.0M | €1.1M – €6.6M | No index | Risk: Very High |
| Adam Daghim VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga | 20.8 | Right winger | 41% | Very High | 1358 (44%) | €7.5M | €5.7M – €11.6M | €4.6M – €20.9M | 84/100 | Risk: Moderate |
| Tom de Graaff PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie | 21.6 | Goalkeeper | 41% | High | 2790 (91%) | €1.0M | €517k – €2.2M | €789k – €3.5M | 83/100 | Risk: High |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.