Who are the biggest bargains in football?
Ranked by Bargain Index: expected value two years from now relative to the estimated acquisition cost, as a percentile of all evaluated players. Filters change the list, never the index.
3,216 players match · showing 30
20 · Central midfielder · Paris Saint-Germain · France
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Very High
- Market value
- €40.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €20.7M – €47.1M
- Model value
- €22.6M – €69.8M
- Projected (24m)
- €30.8M – €85.5M
- Potential value gap
- -€24.5M – €49.1M
Estimated acquisition€20.7M – €47.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€22.6M – €69.8M
Projected value (24 months)€30.8M – €85.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€40.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Performance-implied value in the top 12% of MID peers
- ✓ Strong for age (20): top 0% of same-age peers
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1682 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
21 · Right winger · Zorya Lugansk · Ukraine
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €800k
- Est. acquisition
- €273k – €813k
- Model value
- €521k – €1.3M
- Projected (24m)
- €532k – €2.3M
- Potential value gap
- -€292k – €986k
Estimated acquisition€273k – €813k
Model value (performance-implied)€521k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€532k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (87% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
24 · Striker · Avs Futebol · Portugal
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €250k
- Est. acquisition
- €93k – €284k
- Model value
- €352k – €738k
- Projected (24m)
- €202k – €400k
- Potential value gap
- €69k – €645k
Estimated acquisition€93k – €284k
Model value (performance-implied)€352k – €738k
Projected value (24 months)€202k – €400k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1291 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
20 · Striker · Vejle Boldklub · Denmark
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €3.5M
- Est. acquisition
- €0 – €2.3M
- Model value
- €206k – €634k
- Projected (24m)
- €2.5M – €7.8M
- Potential value gap
- -€2.1M – €634k
Estimated acquisition€0 – €2.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€206k – €634k
Projected value (24 months)€2.5M – €7.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 976 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
20 · Central midfielder · FC Groningen · Netherlands
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Very High
- Market value
- €2.5M
- Est. acquisition
- €1.0M – €3.1M
- Model value
- €462k – €3.1M
- Projected (24m)
- €1.5M – €6.3M
- Potential value gap
- -€2.6M – €2.1M
Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €3.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€462k – €3.1M
Projected value (24 months)€1.5M – €6.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1533 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
25 · Central midfielder · CD Nacional · Portugal
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €500k
- Est. acquisition
- €146k – €433k
- Model value
- €419k – €902k
- Projected (24m)
- €345k – €910k
- Potential value gap
- -€15k – €756k
Estimated acquisition€146k – €433k
Model value (performance-implied)€419k – €902k
Projected value (24 months)€345k – €910k
Dashed line: current market value (€500k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1622 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
21 · Right-back · PEC Zwolle · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €650k
- Est. acquisition
- €238k – €651k
- Model value
- €291k – €734k
- Projected (24m)
- €406k – €1.6M
- Potential value gap
- -€361k – €496k
Estimated acquisition€238k – €651k
Model value (performance-implied)€291k – €734k
Projected value (24 months)€406k – €1.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€650k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
21 · Defensive midfielder · SC Telstar · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: High
- Market value
- €700k
- Est. acquisition
- €283k – €865k
- Model value
- €440k – €1.3M
- Projected (24m)
- €527k – €2.0M
- Potential value gap
- -€425k – €1.0M
Estimated acquisition€283k – €865k
Model value (performance-implied)€440k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€527k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
26 · Goalkeeper · Antalyaspor · Türkiye
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €250k
- Est. acquisition
- €73k – €243k
- Model value
- €213k – €444k
- Projected (24m)
- €195k – €335k
- Potential value gap
- -€30k – €371k
Estimated acquisition€73k – €243k
Model value (performance-implied)€213k – €444k
Projected value (24 months)€195k – €335k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Team conceded 0.18 fewer goals per match than Elo expected with the player on the pitch
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1260 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
23 · Goalkeeper · CD Nacional · Portugal
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €2.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €0 – €1.1M
- Model value
- €485k – €1.4M
- Projected (24m)
- €1.2M – €4.4M
- Potential value gap
- -€632k – €1.4M
Estimated acquisition€0 – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€485k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €4.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Team conceded 0.47 fewer goals per match than Elo expected with the player on the pitch
- ✓ Undisputed starter (82% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 6 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
24 · Central midfielder · St. Mirren FC · Scotland
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €1.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €350k – €1.1M
- Model value
- €379k – €1.1M
- Projected (24m)
- €578k – €2.6M
- Potential value gap
- -€739k – €780k
Estimated acquisition€350k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€379k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€578k – €2.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (95% of league minutes)
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
19 · Striker · Excelsior Rotterdam · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: High
- Market value
- €300k
- Est. acquisition
- €150k – €575k
- Model value
- €225k – €438k
- Projected (24m)
- €248k – €759k
- Potential value gap
- -€350k – €288k
Estimated acquisition€150k – €575k
Model value (performance-implied)€225k – €438k
Projected value (24 months)€248k – €759k
Dashed line: current market value (€300k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1046 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
24 · Central midfielder · Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü · Türkiye
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €2.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €651k – €2.2M
- Model value
- €426k – €985k
- Projected (24m)
- €1.1M – €4.0M
- Potential value gap
- -€1.8M – €334k
Estimated acquisition€651k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€426k – €985k
Projected value (24 months)€1.1M – €4.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Goal contributions 1.9x the positional average in the league (context-adjusted)
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
22 · Right-back · SC Heerenveen · Netherlands
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: High
- Market value
- €5.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €1.8M – €4.8M
- Model value
- €468k – €1.9M
- Projected (24m)
- €3.1M – €9.5M
- Potential value gap
- -€4.3M – €94k
Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €4.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€468k – €1.9M
Projected value (24 months)€3.1M – €9.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (92% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
22 · Right winger · Gaziantep FK · Türkiye
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €6.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €2.0M – €5.7M
- Model value
- €785k – €1.4M
- Projected (24m)
- €3.2M – €12.9M
- Potential value gap
- -€4.9M – -€618k
Estimated acquisition€2.0M – €5.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€785k – €1.4M
Projected value (24 months)€3.2M – €12.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€6.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (87% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
25 · Defensive midfielder · Motherwell FC · Scotland
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €350k
- Est. acquisition
- €81k – €274k
- Model value
- €463k – €1.8M
- Projected (24m)
- €315k – €453k
- Potential value gap
- €188k – €1.8M
Estimated acquisition€81k – €274k
Model value (performance-implied)€463k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€315k – €453k
Dashed line: current market value (€350k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (87% of league minutes)
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
#17Keelan Adams
24 · Right-back · Falkirk FC · Scotland
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €250k
- Est. acquisition
- €58k – €245k
- Model value
- €290k – €664k
- Projected (24m)
- €223k – €387k
- Potential value gap
- €45k – €606k
Estimated acquisition€58k – €245k
Model value (performance-implied)€290k – €664k
Projected value (24 months)€223k – €387k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
20 · Defensive midfielder · FC Oleksandriya · Ukraine
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €400k
- Est. acquisition
- €144k – €450k
- Model value
- €249k – €769k
- Projected (24m)
- €214k – €827k
- Potential value gap
- -€201k – €626k
Estimated acquisition€144k – €450k
Model value (performance-implied)€249k – €769k
Projected value (24 months)€214k – €827k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1309 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
#19Noah Naujoks
24 · Attacking midfielder · Excelsior Rotterdam · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €1.5M
- Est. acquisition
- €539k – €1.7M
- Model value
- €612k – €1.1M
- Projected (24m)
- €813k – €3.0M
- Potential value gap
- -€1.1M – €565k
Estimated acquisition€539k – €1.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€612k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€813k – €3.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Goal contributions 1.3x the positional average in the league (context-adjusted)
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
23 · Right midfielder · SC Telstar · Netherlands
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €750k
- Est. acquisition
- €255k – €901k
- Model value
- €394k – €827k
- Projected (24m)
- €470k – €1.5M
- Potential value gap
- -€508k – €571k
Estimated acquisition€255k – €901k
Model value (performance-implied)€394k – €827k
Projected value (24 months)€470k – €1.5M
Dashed line: current market value (€750k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
21 · Centre-back · FC Groningen · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: High
- Market value
- €4.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €1.8M – €5.2M
- Model value
- €758k – €1.3M
- Projected (24m)
- €2.5M – €11.2M
- Potential value gap
- -€4.4M – -€441k
Estimated acquisition€1.8M – €5.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€758k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€2.5M – €11.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Team conceded 0.25 fewer goals per match than Elo expected with the player on the pitch
- ✓ Undisputed starter (100% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
#22Iurie Iovu
23 · Centre-back · Dundee United FC · Scotland
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €400k
- Est. acquisition
- €132k – €444k
- Model value
- €442k – €1.1M
- Projected (24m)
- €302k – €626k
- Potential value gap
- -€2k – €998k
Estimated acquisition€132k – €444k
Model value (performance-implied)€442k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€302k – €626k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
#23Said Hamulic
25 · Striker · Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos · Greece
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €400k
- Est. acquisition
- €129k – €526k
- Model value
- €322k – €932k
- Projected (24m)
- €275k – €596k
- Potential value gap
- -€204k – €803k
Estimated acquisition€129k – €526k
Model value (performance-implied)€322k – €932k
Projected value (24 months)€275k – €596k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Goal contributions 1.4x the positional average in the league (context-adjusted)
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1014 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
#24Richard King
24 · Centre-back · St. Mirren FC · Scotland
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €250k
- Est. acquisition
- €78k – €252k
- Model value
- €293k – €619k
- Projected (24m)
- €239k – €328k
- Potential value gap
- €41k – €541k
Estimated acquisition€78k – €252k
Model value (performance-implied)€293k – €619k
Projected value (24 months)€239k – €328k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Team conceded 0.19 fewer goals per match than Elo expected with the player on the pitch
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Limited sample: 1697 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
22 · Central midfielder · Vejle Boldklub · Denmark
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €800k
- Est. acquisition
- €276k – €1.1M
- Model value
- €251k – €519k
- Projected (24m)
- €538k – €2.1M
- Potential value gap
- -€820k – €243k
Estimated acquisition€276k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€251k – €519k
Projected value (24 months)€538k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ Limited sample: 921 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
#26Amar Fatah
22 · Left winger · Dundee United FC · Scotland
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: High
- Market value
- €800k
- Est. acquisition
- €312k – €958k
- Model value
- €665k – €1.5M
- Projected (24m)
- €501k – €2.1M
- Potential value gap
- -€293k – €1.2M
Estimated acquisition€312k – €958k
Model value (performance-implied)€665k – €1.5M
Projected value (24 months)€501k – €2.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Goal contributions 1.5x the positional average in the league (context-adjusted)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
#27Rick Meissen
24 · Centre-back · Excelsior Rotterdam · Netherlands
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €800k
- Est. acquisition
- €296k – €876k
- Model value
- €414k – €723k
- Projected (24m)
- €540k – €1.7M
- Potential value gap
- -€462k – €427k
Estimated acquisition€296k – €876k
Model value (performance-implied)€414k – €723k
Projected value (24 months)€540k – €1.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Team conceded 0.21 fewer goals per match than Elo expected with the player on the pitch
- ✓ Undisputed starter (82% of league minutes)
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠ Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
#28Younes Taha
23 · Attacking midfielder · FC Groningen · Netherlands
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €4.0M
- Est. acquisition
- €1.5M – €4.5M
- Model value
- €551k – €2.0M
- Projected (24m)
- €2.1M – €8.2M
- Potential value gap
- -€3.9M – €519k
Estimated acquisition€1.5M – €4.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€551k – €2.0M
Projected value (24 months)€2.1M – €8.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Undisputed starter (88% of league minutes)
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
#29Iyad Mohamed
25 · Defensive midfielder · Casa Pia AC · Portugal
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Low
- Market value
- €400k
- Est. acquisition
- €115k – €299k
- Model value
- €300k – €693k
- Projected (24m)
- €281k – €553k
- Potential value gap
- €390 – €578k
Estimated acquisition€115k – €299k
Model value (performance-implied)€300k – €693k
Projected value (24 months)€281k – €553k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- ✓ Improving trajectory
- ✓ Estimated acquisition well below performance-implied value
Risks
- ⚠ Limited sample: 948 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠ No continental-competition minutes last season.
#30Egor Smelov
21 · Attacking midfielder · FK Nizhny Novgorod · Russia
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: Moderate
- Market value
- €750k
- Est. acquisition
- €310k – €1.1M
- Model value
- €350k – €730k
- Projected (24m)
- €398k – €1.9M
- Potential value gap
- -€747k – €421k
Estimated acquisition€310k – €1.1M
Model value (performance-implied)€350k – €730k
Projected value (24 months)€398k – €1.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€750k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.
Why
- No standout strengths flagged.
Risks
- ⚠ Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠ Limited sample: 941 league minutes last season.
- ⚠ League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.