What would MoneyballAI have found in 2022?
The top 50 players by Bargain Index on 1 July of that year, using only information available on that date (no look-ahead), and what actually happened over the next ~2 years. All picks are shown — successes and failures.
19 hits (market value up ≥ 25% within ~2 years) · 31 misses · 0 unknown. A “miss” can still have been a sensible purchase; “hit” is judged against market value, not our own estimates.
| # | Player | Age then | League then | BI | Value then | Est. acquisition then | Value ~2y later | Change | Next league | Sold for | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Carmona RB | 26 | Super League 1 | 100 | €450k | €226k | €450k | +0% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 2 | Konstantinos Provydakis RB | 26 | Super League 1 | 100 | €250k | €102k | €250k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 3 | Kévin Soni ST | 24 | Super League 1 | 100 | €800k | €444k | €600k | -25% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 4 | James Brown RB | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €250k | €100k | €325k | +30% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 5 | Luke McCowan CM | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €350k | €116k | €600k | +71% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 6 | Cristopher Núñez AM | 25 | Super League 1 | 100 | €350k | €169k | €500k | +43% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 7 | Kieran Freeman RB | 22 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €350k | €205k | €325k | -7% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 8 | Ilmari Niskanen RM | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €450k | €204k | €325k | -28% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 9 | Bart Nieuwkoop RB | 26 | Jupiler Pro League | 100 | €2.5M | €1.3M | €4.0M | +60% | Eredivisie | €2.8M | hit |
| 10 | Sito LW | 26 | Super League 1 | 100 | €500k | €265k | €350k | -30% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 11 | Doğan Alemdar GK | 20 | Ligue 1 | 100 | €3.5M | €5.6M | €2.5M | -29% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 12 | James Penrice LB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €450k | €263k | €600k | +33% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 13 | Emiliano Purita RB | 25 | Super League 1 | 100 | €350k | €160k | €200k | -43% | Premier Liga | — | miss |
| 14 | Theofanis Tzandaris DM | 29 | Super League 1 | 100 | €250k | €133k | €300k | +20% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 15 | Markus Schubert GK | 24 | Eredivisie | 100 | €600k | €414k | €300k | -50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 16 | Antonis Dentakis RB | 27 | Super League 1 | 100 | €300k | €129k | €200k | -33% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 17 | Jordan Marshall LB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 100 | €325k | €134k | €300k | -8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 18 | Michel Vlap AM | 25 | Eredivisie | 100 | €2.0M | €1.2M | €3.0M | +50% | Eredivisie | €2.0M | hit |
| 19 | Dean Huiberts CM | 22 | Eredivisie | 99 | €450k | €254k | €500k | +11% | Eredivisie | — | miss |
| 20 | Callum Hendry ST | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €425k | €224k | €325k | -24% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 21 | Yaya Sithole CM | 23 | Liga Portugal | 99 | €300k | €176k | €275k | -8% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 22 | Josh Ginnelly LW | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €450k | €260k | €900k | +100% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 23 | Connor Ronan CM | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €750k | €355k | €1.0M | +33% | left covered leagues / no data | €570k | hit |
| 24 | Ayo Obileye CB | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €375k | €205k | €300k | -20% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 25 | Anthony Ralston RB | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €2.0M | €1.9M | €1.8M | -10% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 26 | Lazar Romanić ST | 24 | Super League 1 | 99 | €500k | €242k | €800k | +60% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 27 | Nikita Krivtsov AM | 20 | Premier Liga | 99 | €1.0M | €1.0M | €3.5M | +250% | Premier Liga | — | hit |
| 28 | Manolis Saliakas RB | 26 | Super League 1 | 99 | €1.0M | €501k | €2.5M | +150% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 29 | Nikolaos Marinakis RB | 29 | Super League 1 | 99 | €350k | €135k | €250k | -29% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 30 | Xesc Regis RW | 26 | Super League 1 | 99 | €500k | €263k | €800k | +60% | Super League 1 | — | hit |
| 31 | Jordan Beyer CB | 22 | Bundesliga | 99 | €4.5M | €3.6M | €13.0M | +189% | Premier League | — | hit |
| 32 | Maksymilian Stryjek GK | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €500k | €290k | €450k | -10% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 33 | Georgios Saramantas LB | 30 | Super League 1 | 99 | €250k | €121k | €175k | -30% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 34 | Gervane Kastaneer ST | 26 | Eredivisie | 99 | €350k | €197k | €200k | -43% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 35 | Jonathan Morsay LW | 25 | Super League 1 | 99 | €400k | €170k | €400k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 36 | Teddy Teuma CM | 29 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €2.5M | €1.6M | €7.0M | +180% | Ligue 1 | €5.5M | hit |
| 37 | Regan Charles-Cook LW | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €650k | €358k | €650k | +0% | Jupiler Pro League | — | miss |
| 38 | Cammy Kerr RB | 27 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €350k | €146k | €325k | -7% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 39 | Loïc Lapoussin LM | 26 | Jupiler Pro League | 99 | €2.8M | €1.5M | €4.0M | +43% | Jupiler Pro League | — | hit |
| 40 | Nathan McGinley LB | 26 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €375k | €166k | €200k | -47% | Scottish Premiership | — | miss |
| 41 | Kaiyne Woolery LW | 28 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €325k | €191k | €200k | -38% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 42 | Greg Kiltie LW | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €209k | €600k | +50% | Scottish Premiership | — | hit |
| 43 | Víctor Chust CB | 22 | Laliga | 99 | €2.5M | €2.3M | €2.0M | -20% | Laliga | €1.0M | miss |
| 44 | Ethan Erhahon CM | 21 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €400k | €258k | €800k | +100% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 45 | Michael Gardawski LM | 32 | Super League 1 | 99 | €250k | €128k | €200k | -20% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 46 | Konstantinos Kotsaris GK | 26 | Super League 1 | 99 | €350k | €201k | €400k | +14% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |
| 47 | Aguibou Camara AM | 21 | Super League 1 | 99 | €5.0M | €5.1M | €2.0M | -60% | Super League 1 | — | miss |
| 48 | Jack Fitzwater CB | 25 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €450k | €286k | €600k | +33% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 49 | Frans Dhia Putros CB | 29 | Superliga | 99 | €300k | €161k | €450k | +50% | left covered leagues / no data | — | hit |
| 50 | Barry Maguire DM | 24 | Scottish Premiership | 99 | €375k | €197k | €375k | +0% | left covered leagues / no data | — | miss |