Ciro Immobile
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ciro Immobile's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-1.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.99x the positional average in the league (902 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 64th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €793k vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -46% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 902 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1469
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €607k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; changed club; team strength up (+129 Elo); league level up (+209 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -70% to -30%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 902 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | ST | 12 | 711 | 23% | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 1457 | 1454 | 0.88 |
| 2025/26 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | ST | 6 | 191 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 1492 | 1523 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | ST | 30 | 2025 | 63% | 15 | 4 | 0.84 | 0.60 | 1267 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 31 | 1656 | 48% | 7 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.42 | 1476 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 31 | 2225 | 65% | 12 | 5 | 0.69 | 0.52 | 1445 | 1578 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 31 | 2716 | 79% | 27 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.71 | 1470 | 1561 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 35 | 2863 | 84% | 20 | 7 | 0.85 | 0.54 | 1443 | 1548 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 37 | 3176 | 93% | 36 | 8 | 1.25 | 0.80 | 1424 | 1557 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 36 | 2859 | 84% | 15 | 6 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 1470 | 1467 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 33 | 2696 | 79% | 29 | 8 | 1.24 | 0.80 | 1463 | 1597 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | ST | 36 | 3123 | 91% | 23 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 1459 | 1537 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Torino FC | Serie A | ST | 14 | 986 | 29% | 5 | 4 | 0.82 | 0.70 | 1466 | 1466 | 0.95 |
| 2015/16 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | ST | 8 | 334 | 10% | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.38 | 1586 | 1619 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | ST | 24 | 957 | 31% | 3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 1520 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Torino FC | Serie A | ST | 33 | 2589 | 76% | 22 | 3 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 1463 | 1470 | 0.88 |
| 2012/13 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | ST | 33 | 2020 | 59% | 5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.47 | 1408 | 1373 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 2 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 420 | 0 | 0 | 1539 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 148 | 2 | 0 | 1377 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 8 | 507 | 4 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 314 | 1 | 2 | 1404 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 523 | 4 | 1 | 1485 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 117 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 417 | 5 | 1 | 1698 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 265 | 2 | 0 | 1518 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 162 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1756 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 447 | 4 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 388 | 1 | 4 | 1538 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 9 | 582 | 8 | 1 | 1519 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 357 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 2 | 0 | 1814 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 394 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 244 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Sevilla FC | 3 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1695 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Super Cup | Sevilla FC | 1 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1930 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 404 | 4 | 0 | 1609 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 191 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1854 |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Italy Cup | Genoa CFC | 1 | 44 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl García Laliga · 2023 | 37 | €2.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Álvaro Negredo Laliga · 2023 | 38 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Germán Denis Serie A · 2016 | 35 | €1.0M | €350k | fell |
| Valère Germain Ligue 1 · 2023 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Aleix Vidal Laliga · 2023 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Jaime Mata Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Pedro León Laliga · 2021 | 35 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Glenn Murray Premier League · 2020 | 37 | €1.6M | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Feb 2026 | Bologna | Paris FC | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Besiktas | Bologna | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 12 Jul 2024 | Lazio | Besiktas | €2.0M | €4.0M |
| 27 Jul 2016 | Sevilla FC | Lazio | €9.4M | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Torino | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 14 Jan 2016 | Sevilla FC | Torino | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 13 Jan 2016 | Dortmund | Sevilla FC | €11.0M | €10.0M |
| 12 Jan 2016 | Sevilla FC | Dortmund | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 12 Jul 2015 | Dortmund | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 2 Jul 2014 | Torino | Dortmund | €18.5M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Juventus | Torino | €8.0M | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Torino | Juventus | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 12 Jul 2013 | Juventus | Torino | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 11 Jul 2013 | Genoa | Juventus | €2.8M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Juventus | Genoa | €4.0M | €6.5M |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Pescara | Juventus | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 17 Aug 2011 | Juventus | Pescara | Free / loan | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2011 | Grosseto | Juventus | Free / loan | €300k |
| 24 Jan 2011 | Juventus | Grosseto | Free / loan | €300k |
| 23 Jan 2011 | AC Siena | Juventus | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Juventus U19 | AC Siena | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Juventus Youth | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2007 | Sorrento Youth | Juventus Youth | €80k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Salernitana You | Sorrento Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.