Jeffrey Gouweleeuw
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jeffrey Gouweleeuw's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 70.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €442k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 851 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1421
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €409k – €947k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 68 pts; relative output down 49% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -11% (IQR -33% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 851 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 851 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1503 | 1421 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2945 | 96% | 1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1510 | 1404 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2594 | 85% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1520 | 1393 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2797 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1536 | 1378 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2578 | 84% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1532 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2835 | 93% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1536 | 1396 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1643 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1541 | 1408 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 25 | 2092 | 68% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1510 | 1409 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2385 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1523 | 1461 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 18 | 1550 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1538 | 1452 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 16 | 1440 | 47% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1327 | 1460 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | FC Augsburg | Bundesliga | CB | 11 | 990 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1563 | 1475 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1346 | 1389 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1341 | 1373 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | CB | 30 | 2367 | 77% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1373 | 1265 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 3 | 330 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Augsburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1490 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 270 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 10 | 900 | 1 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 489 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1345 |
| 2013/14 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 300 | 0 | 0 | 1343 |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 265 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renato Civelli Ligue 1 · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Nikolce Noveski Bundesliga · 2015 | 36 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Luis Hernández Laliga · 2024 | 35 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Ben Mee Premier League · 2024 | 35 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Dedê Super Lig · 2014 | 36 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Martín Mantovani Laliga · 2018 | 34 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Marcelo Ligue 1 · 2022 | 35 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Víctor Díaz Laliga · 2021 | 33 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Jan 2016 | AZ Alkmaar | Augsburg | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Heerenveen | AZ Alkmaar | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | H'veen/Emmen II | Heerenveen | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Heerenveen U19 | H'veen/Emmen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Heerenveen U17 | Heerenveen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | ADO '20 Yth. | Heerenveen U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.