Guilherme Neiva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Guilherme Neiva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.96x the positional average in the league (923 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 98
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 6.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €166k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 923 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.49
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.80
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 7 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1376
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €221k – €464k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -36% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 923 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Avs Futebol | Liga Portugal | LW | 24 | 923 | 30% | 2 | 3 | 0.49 | 0.80 | 1376 | 1182 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Mensah Superliga · 2016 | 25 | €350k | €300k | flat |
| Ahmet Dereli Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| David Sambissa Eredivisie · 2022 | 26 | €350k | €375k | flat |
| Ruslan Kisil Premier Liga · 2018 | 27 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Alioune Ndour Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 26 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Vitaliy Lisakovich Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Volodymyr Lysenko Premier Liga · 2016 | 28 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ismaïl Sassi Super League 1 · 2019 | 28 | €450k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jul 2025 | Oliv. Hospital | Avs FS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jul 2024 | Os Sandinenses | Oliv. Hospital | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Vianense | Os Sandinenses | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Taipas | Vianense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Coimbra | Taipas | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | V. Gaia Sub-19 | Coimbra | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.