Gustavo Mancha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustavo Mancha's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.9M-3.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €978k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1603 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1317
- Opponent strength
- 1323
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €883k – €3.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR +0% to +68%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1603 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 14 | 1260 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1323 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2025/26 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | CB | 4 | 343 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1152 | 1550 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheldon Bateau Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Ameen Al-Dakhil Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 20 | €1.2M | €12.0M | rose |
| André Pinto Super League 1 · 2013 | 24 | €1.5M | €3.5M | rose |
| Patrick William Liga Portugal · 2021 | 24 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Ilya Agapov Premier Liga · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Bryan Verboom Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 22 | €1.0M | €1.5M | rose |
| Aílton Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Nathan Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Rio Ave | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Feb 2026 | Olympiacos | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Fortaleza | Olympiacos | €4.5M | €700k |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Fortaleza U20 | Fortaleza | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Mar 2024 | Palmeiras U20 | Fortaleza U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2022 | Palmeiras U17 | Palmeiras U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.