Stefan de Vrij
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stefan de Vrij's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-5.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 90.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -50% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 671 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1722
- Opponent strength
- 1384
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.0M – €2.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 31 pts; team strength down (-96 Elo); relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -69% to -65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 671 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 11 | 671 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1384 | 1722 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 26 | 1719 | 50% | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1448 | 1819 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1579 | 46% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1455 | 1802 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 27 | 1943 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 1439 | 1738 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2412 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1452 | 1731 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2732 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1452 | 1748 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2828 | 83% | 4 | 3 | 0.22 | 0.13 | 1438 | 1657 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1423 | 1565 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 36 | 3042 | 89% | 6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 1472 | 1597 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2272 | 66% | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1450 | 1537 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1367 | 1546 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2534 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1468 | 1586 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2843 | 93% | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1329 | 1518 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 26 | 2234 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1357 | 1449 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 9 | 688 | 0 | 0 | 1619 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 259 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 174 | 0 | 1 | 1715 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 498 | 0 | 0 | 1648 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1630 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 7 | 296 | 0 | 0 | 1770 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 3 | 242 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1688 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 487 | 1 | 0 | 1665 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 345 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercoppa Italiana | Inter Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1706 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1678 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 329 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1690 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1653 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 178 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 5 | 442 | 0 | 1 | 1740 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1591 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 7 | 630 | 1 | 0 | 1516 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1814 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 294 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 179 | 0 | 1 | 1660 |
| 2015/16 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1779 |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 466 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1564 |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Barzagli Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Iñigo Martínez Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sylvain Armand Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Medhi Benatia Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €9.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Javier Mascherano Laliga · 2018 | 34 | €5.0M | €325k | fell |
| Simon Kjær Serie A · 2022 | 33 | €6.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mario Gaspar Laliga · 2022 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Christophe Jallet Ligue 1 · 2014 | 31 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | Lazio | Inter | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 30 Jul 2014 | Feyenoord | Lazio | €7.0M | €6.0M |
| 17 Jul 2009 | Feyenoord U19 | Feyenoord | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Feyenoord Youth | Feyenoord U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.