Mykyta Minchev
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mykyta Minchev's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 96
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 0.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €182k vs market €350k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1170 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 1 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 909
- Opponent strength
- 1191
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €245k – €567k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -4% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1170 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Poltava | Premier Liga | GK | 13 | 1170 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1191 | 909 | 0.25 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | SC Poltava | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Wickens Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Orest Kostyk Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Stefan Stojanovic Super League 1 · 2023 | 26 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Abdulsamed Damlu Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Matej Markovic Super League 1 · 2023 | 27 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Daniil Yermolov Premier Liga · 2023 | 23 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Nazariy Fedorivskyi Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Oscar Hedvall Superliga · 2020 | 22 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2025 | Agrobiznes | SC Poltava | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Oleksandria U19 | Agrobiznes | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Shakhtar U19 | Oleksandria U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Shakhtar U17 | Shakhtar U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 26 Mar 2019 | DYuSSh-15 Kyiv | Shakhtar U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.