Stevie May

33 yrs · Striker · Scotland
Livingston FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2027
Market value
€75k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€32k – €100k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€96k – €262k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€49k – €103k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€4k – €230k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€32k – €100k
Model value (performance-implied)€96k – €262k
Projected value (24 months)€49k – €103k
Dashed line: current market value (€75k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Stevie May's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (1610 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average3.4th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €42k vs market €75k
Expected appreciationNeutral-5% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1610 (54% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.17
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.48
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
3 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
981
Opponent strength
1257
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€49k – €103k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -50% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1610 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
12 (ATT)
Relative output kept
75%–114%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
67%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Livingston FCScottish PremiershipST29161054%120.170.4912579810.31
2023/24St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST2370224%010.130.49122111050.34
2022/23St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST32223575%760.520.59129711380.40
2021/22St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST27119040%210.230.46130512260.50
2020/21St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST30154252%540.530.68132113070.54
2019/20St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST24163363%620.440.53126912600.52
2018/19Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipST27151551%240.360.37130313590.44
2017/18Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipST24184962%560.540.39127314000.47
2013/14St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST38303589%2070.800.67132713200.44
2012/13St. Johnstone FCScottish PremiershipST3511%000.000.62132913570.52

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupLivingston FC14700—
2024/25Scottish Fa CupLivingston FC325400—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC11000—
2022/23Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC16700—
2021/22Uefa Europa League QualifyingSt. Johnstone FC251001389
2021/22Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC14100—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingSt. Johnstone FC25001617
2020/21Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC324302—
2019/20Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC325711—
2018/19Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC418201—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC234001501
2017/18Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC423501—
2014/15Uefa Europa League QualifyingSt. Johnstone FC2210201402
2014/15Fa CupSheffield Wednesday16601—
2013/14Scottish Fa CupSt. Johnstone FC542941—
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingSt. Johnstone FC3190101386
2012/13Scottish Fa CupHamilton Academical FC217710—
2012/13Uefa Europa League QualifyingSt. Johnstone FC218001384

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ziguy Badibanga
Premier Liga · 2024
33€250k€250kflat
Georgios Manousos
Super League 1 · 2023
36€150k€100kfell
Adis Jahovic
Super Lig · 2022
35€275k€25kfell
Simeon Jackson
Scottish Premiership · 2019
32€250k€250kflat
Igor
Super League 1 · 2016
36€100k€100kflat
Anton Shynder
Premier Liga · 2021
34€100k€100kflat
Denys Kozhanov
Premier Liga · 2021
34€200k€100kfell
Artem Sitalo
Premier Liga · 2023
34€150k€75kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025St. JohnstoneLivingston FCFree / loan€125k
31 May 2025Livingston FCSt. JohnstoneFree / loan€125k
21 Aug 2024St. JohnstoneLivingston FCFree / loan€250k
30 Aug 2019Aberdeen FCSt. JohnstoneFree / loan€450k
10 Aug 2017PrestonAberdeen FC€450k€750k
1 Sept 2015Sheff WedPreston€1.1M€1.0M
9 Aug 2014St. JohnstoneSheff Wed€1.0M€650k
5 May 2013Hamilton Acad.St. JohnstoneFree / loan€125k
29 Aug 2012St. JohnstoneHamilton Acad.Free / loan€125k
15 May 2012Alloa AthleticSt. JohnstoneFree / loan€100k
1 Dec 2011St. JohnstoneAlloa AthleticFree / loan€100k
1 Jan 2011St. Johnstone FC U20St. JohnstoneUnknown€75k
1 Aug 2008St. Johnstone FC U17St. Johnstone FC U20UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007St. Johnst. YthSt. Johnstone FC U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.