Jakub Brabec

34 yrs · Centre-back · Czech Republic
Rio Ave FC · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€119k – €324k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€248k – €483k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€115k – €327k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€76k – €364k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€119k – €324k
Model value (performance-implied)€248k – €483k
Projected value (24 months)€115k – €327k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Jakub Brabec's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAverage36.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €158k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-41% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.58
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2150 (70% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.04
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
37 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo)
1254
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€115k – €327k

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+113 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -60% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
66 (DEF)
Relative output kept
57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
76%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Rio Ave FCLiga PortugalCB25215070%100.040.06133412540.58
2024/25Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB23187980%100.050.06128012880.35
2023/24Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB23201786%010.040.04124513480.42
2022/23Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB19168672%100.050.05123113140.37
2021/22Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB262340100%100.040.04125313390.39
2018/19Caykur RizesporSuper LigCB17148949%000.000.04138513240.58
2017/18KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB1290734%100.100.07135414450.63
2016/17KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueCB18157558%000.000.02134715000.62

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis190001350
2024/25Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis327000—
2023/24Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis757900—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis4360001452
2022/23Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis436000—
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Viktoria Plzen6405001315
2021/22Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis439000—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk11981101526
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingAC Sparta Prague2141001430
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingAC Sparta Prague15101383

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Vasco Faísca
Super League 1 · 2014
34€300k€125kfell
Henrique
Liga Portugal · 2021
35€350k€200kfell
Jerold Promes
Eredivisie · 2018
34€300k€150kfell
Aleksey Kozlov
Premier Liga · 2021
35€300k€250kflat
Leandro Álvarez
Super League 1 · 2014
33€500k€500kflat
Zainadine
Liga Portugal · 2021
33€500k€100kfell
Toni Leistner
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
33€500k€500kflat
Bart van Hintum
Eredivisie · 2022
35€275k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Sept 2025Aris SalonikiRio AveFree / loan€1.0M
31 Aug 2021Viktoria PlzeňAris SalonikiUnknown€2.2M
1 Jul 2019GenkViktoria PlzeňUnknown€2.0M
30 Jun 2019Viktoria PlzeňGenkFree / loan€2.0M
20 Feb 2019GenkViktoria PlzeňFree / loan€1.8M
19 Feb 2019C. RizesporGenkFree / loan€1.8M
3 Aug 2018GenkC. RizesporFree / loan€1.8M
31 Aug 2016Sparta PragueGenk€2.5M€2.5M
30 Jun 2013Zbrojovka BrnoSparta PragueFree / loan€700k
14 Sept 2012Sparta PragueZbrojovka BrnoFree / loan€700k
1 Jan 2012Sparta Prague BSparta PragueUnknown€300k
4 Aug 2011Viktoria ZizkovSparta Prague BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009V. Zizkov U19Viktoria ZizkovUnknownData unavailable
18 Feb 2009Sparta U17V. Zizkov U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Sparta Yth.Sparta U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.