
Jakub Brabec
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jakub Brabec's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 36.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €158k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2150 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 37 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1254
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €115k – €327k
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+113 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -60% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rio Ave FC | Liga Portugal | CB | 25 | 2150 | 70% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1334 | 1254 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 1879 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1280 | 1288 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 2017 | 86% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1245 | 1348 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 19 | 1686 | 72% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1231 | 1314 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1253 | 1339 | 0.39 |
| 2018/19 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1489 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1385 | 1324 | 0.58 |
| 2017/18 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 12 | 907 | 34% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1354 | 1445 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 18 | 1575 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1347 | 1500 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 7 | 579 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1452 |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Viktoria Plzen | 6 | 405 | 0 | 0 | 1315 |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 11 | 981 | 1 | 0 | 1526 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AC Sparta Prague | 2 | 141 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AC Sparta Prague | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1383 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco Faísca Super League 1 · 2014 | 34 | €300k | €125k | fell |
| Henrique Liga Portugal · 2021 | 35 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Jerold Promes Eredivisie · 2018 | 34 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Aleksey Kozlov Premier Liga · 2021 | 35 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Leandro Álvarez Super League 1 · 2014 | 33 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Zainadine Liga Portugal · 2021 | 33 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Toni Leistner Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 33 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Bart van Hintum Eredivisie · 2022 | 35 | €275k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Sept 2025 | Aris Saloniki | Rio Ave | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Viktoria Plzeň | Aris Saloniki | Unknown | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Genk | Viktoria Plzeň | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Viktoria Plzeň | Genk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 20 Feb 2019 | Genk | Viktoria Plzeň | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 19 Feb 2019 | C. Rizespor | Genk | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 3 Aug 2018 | Genk | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Sparta Prague | Genk | €2.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Zbrojovka Brno | Sparta Prague | Free / loan | €700k |
| 14 Sept 2012 | Sparta Prague | Zbrojovka Brno | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | Sparta Prague B | Sparta Prague | Unknown | €300k |
| 4 Aug 2011 | Viktoria Zizkov | Sparta Prague B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | V. Zizkov U19 | Viktoria Zizkov | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 18 Feb 2009 | Sparta U17 | V. Zizkov U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Sparta Yth. | Sparta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.