
Günay Güvenç
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Günay Güvenç's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 49.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €141k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 738 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1501
- Opponent strength
- 1204
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €71k – €203k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -50% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 738 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | GK | 9 | 738 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1204 | 1501 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 121 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1202 | 1557 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | GK | 2 | 120 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1334 | 1597 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 22 | 1980 | 61% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 1280 | 1106 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Kasimpasa | Super Lig | GK | 8 | 720 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1298 | 1295 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 35 | 3100 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1260 | 1238 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 38 | 3420 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1274 | 1252 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Gaziantep FK | Super Lig | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 1341 | 1284 | 0.45 |
| 2017/18 | Göztepe | Super Lig | GK | 5 | 405 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1394 | 1362 | 0.68 |
| 2015/16 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | GK | 2 | 135 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1522 | 1571 | 0.64 |
| 2014/15 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | GK | 10 | 855 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1426 | 1548 | 0.72 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon McLaughlin Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 36 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Lukasz Zaluska Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 33 | €350k | €200k | fell |
| Stefanos Kotsolis Super League 1 · 2014 | 35 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Dorus de Vries Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 38 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Harun Tekin Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €350k | €175k | fell |
| Anton Kochenkov Premier Liga · 2021 | 34 | €500k | €225k | fell |
| Ryan Esson Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 35 | €200k | €125k | fell |
| Igor Lytovka Premier Liga · 2021 | 33 | €200k | €125k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Galatasaray | €250k | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Kasimpasa | Gaziantep FK | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 17 Feb 2023 | Gaziantep FK | Kasimpasa | Free / loan | €2.3M |
| 20 Aug 2018 | Göztepe | Gazisehir | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Besiktas | Göztepe | €75k | €800k |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Mersin IY | Besiktas | Free / loan | €250k |
| 25 Jul 2014 | Besiktas | Mersin IY | Free / loan | €250k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Adanaspor | Besiktas | Free / loan | €150k |
| 16 Jan 2014 | Besiktas | Adanaspor | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stuttg. Kickers | Besiktas | €200k | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | St. Kickers II | Stuttg. Kickers | Unknown | €25k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | St. Kickers U19 | St. Kickers II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | SSV Ulm U19 | St. Kickers U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | SSV Ulm U17 | SSV Ulm U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | SSV Ulm 1846 Yo | SSV Ulm U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.