Günay Güvenç

35 yrs · Goalkeeper · Türkiye
Galatasaray · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€200k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€60k – €296k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€202k – €1.0M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€71k – €203k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€94k – €954k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€60k – €296k
Model value (performance-implied)€202k – €1.0M
Projected value (24 months)€71k – €203k
Dashed line: current market value (€200k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Günay Güvenç's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage49.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €141k vs market €200k
Expected appreciationNeutral-6% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
738 (24% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
50 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1501
Opponent strength
1204
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€71k – €203k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -50% to -36%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 738 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
138 (all positions)
Relative output kept
76%–145%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
59%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26GalatasaraySuper LigGK973824%000.000.00120415010.40
2024/25GalatasaraySuper LigGK31214%000.000.00120215570.39
2023/24GalatasaraySuper LigGK21204%000.000.00133415970.45
2022/23Gaziantep FKSuper LigGK22198061%020.090.03128011060.50
2022/23KasimpasaSuper LigGK872022%000.000.00129812950.50
2021/22Gaziantep FKSuper LigGK35310091%000.000.00126012380.42
2020/21Gaziantep FKSuper LigGK38342095%000.000.00127412520.37
2019/20Gaziantep FKSuper LigGK31279091%010.030.02134112840.45
2017/18GöztepeSuper LigGK540513%000.000.00139413620.68
2015/16Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK21354%000.000.00152215710.64
2014/15Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigGK1085528%000.000.00142615480.72

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueGalatasaray123001522
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueGalatasaray4360001478
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingGalatasaray246001516

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jon McLaughlin
Scottish Premiership · 2023
36€300k€150kfell
Lukasz Zaluska
Scottish Premiership · 2015
33€350k€200kfell
Stefanos Kotsolis
Super League 1 · 2014
35€300k€200kfell
Dorus de Vries
Scottish Premiership · 2018
38€500k€350kfell
Harun Tekin
Super Lig · 2021
32€350k€175kfell
Anton Kochenkov
Premier Liga · 2021
34€500k€225kfell
Ryan Esson
Scottish Premiership · 2015
35€200k€125kfell
Igor Lytovka
Premier Liga · 2021
33€200k€125kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Aug 2023Gaziantep FKGalatasaray€250k€2.0M
30 Jun 2023KasimpasaGaziantep FKFree / loan€2.0M
17 Feb 2023Gaziantep FKKasimpasaFree / loan€2.3M
20 Aug 2018GöztepeGazisehirFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2016BesiktasGöztepe€75k€800k
1 Sept 2014Mersin IYBesiktasFree / loan€250k
25 Jul 2014BesiktasMersin IYFree / loan€250k
30 Jun 2014AdanasporBesiktasFree / loan€150k
16 Jan 2014BesiktasAdanasporFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2013Stuttg. KickersBesiktas€200k€150k
1 Jul 2010St. Kickers IIStuttg. KickersUnknown€25k
1 Jul 2009St. Kickers U19St. Kickers IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2009SSV Ulm U19St. Kickers U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2007SSV Ulm U17SSV Ulm U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006SSV Ulm 1846 YoSSV Ulm U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Günay Güvenç · MoneyballAI