Lionel Carole
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lionel Carole's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €116k vs market €200k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1902 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1147
- Opponent strength
- 1284
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €83k – €201k
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-78 Elo); relative output up 54% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -50% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LB | 24 | 1902 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1284 | 1147 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LB | 31 | 2479 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1297 | 1225 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LB | 28 | 2200 | 64% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1297 | 1208 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LB | 23 | 2004 | 62% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 1299 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | LB | 31 | 2651 | 78% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1251 | 1216 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 27 | 1333 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1450 | 1380 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 18 | 1272 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1431 | 1430 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | LB | 23 | 1729 | 51% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 1463 | 1408 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | LB | 6 | 540 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1627 | 1575 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 25 | 2198 | 72% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1380 | 1455 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Galatasaray | Super Lig | LB | 19 | 1428 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1394 | 1450 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1476 |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Galatasaray | 2 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 1368 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Galatasaray | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1638 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Galatasaray | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Karypidis Super League 1 · 2018 | 36 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Carl Hoefkens Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Dmytro Chygrynskyi Super League 1 · 2023 | 37 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Kees Luijckx Superliga · 2020 | 34 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2023 | 34 | €150k | €75k | fell |
| Matthew Kilgallon Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 35 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Giannis Kontoes Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Dmytro Nemchaninov Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 2021 | R. Strasbourg | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 17 Aug 2018 | Galatasaray | R. Strasbourg | €750k | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Sevilla FC | Galatasaray | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Galatasaray | Sevilla FC | Free / loan | €3.3M |
| 11 Jul 2015 | Troyes | Galatasaray | €1.5M | €1.5M |
| 9 Jul 2013 | Benfica B | Troyes | Free / loan | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Benfica | Benfica B | Unknown | €600k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | CS Sedan | Benfica | Free / loan | €600k |
| 31 Aug 2011 | Benfica | CS Sedan | Free / loan | €600k |
| 27 Jan 2011 | FC Nantes | Benfica | €750k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Nantes B | FC Nantes | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.