Marnon Busch
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marnon Busch's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €322k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1913 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1512
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €331k – €922k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 17 pts; relative output up 118% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -61% (IQR -76% to -43%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | RB | 29 | 1913 | 63% | 1 | 5 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1512 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | RB | 23 | 1397 | 46% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1500 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | RB | 16 | 591 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1510 | 1424 | 1.01 |
| 2014/15 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | RB | 9 | 423 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 1584 | 1451 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Costa Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Felipe Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Daniele Gastaldello Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Denis Tumasyan Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €900k | €500k | fell |
| Marco Calderoni Serie A · 2020 | 31 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Simone Romagnoli Serie A · 2022 | 32 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Stefano Lucchini Serie A · 2013 | 33 | €900k | €200k | fell |
| Thomas Phibel Premier Liga · 2016 | 30 | €700k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2017 | Werder Bremen | Heidenheim | €100k | €300k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | 1860 Munich | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Werder Bremen | 1860 Munich | Free / loan | €350k |
| 28 Aug 2014 | W. Bremen II | Werder Bremen | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | W. Bremen U19 | W. Bremen II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | W. Bremen U17 | W. Bremen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | W. Bremen Yth. | W. Bremen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Güld. Stade Jgd. | W. Bremen Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | SSV Hagen Jgd. | Güld. Stade Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.