Paul McGinn
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Paul McGinn's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 22.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €54k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2702 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 23 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1245
- Opponent strength
- 1223
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €32k – €102k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 70 pts; team strength up (+124 Elo); relative output down 81% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -51% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 31 | 2702 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1223 | 1245 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 10 | 612 | 21% | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1250 | 1121 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 26 | 2161 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1257 | 1179 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Motherwell FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 31 | 2556 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1303 | 1202 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 20 | 1576 | 53% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1310 | 1283 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 1311 | 1373 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 22 | 1883 | 70% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1318 | 1168 | 0.52 |
| 2019/20 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 7 | 585 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1295 | 1317 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 30 | 2507 | 84% | 2 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.26 | 1313 | 1092 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Partick Thistle FC | Scottish Premiership | RM | 22 | 1959 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1274 | 1153 | 0.47 |
| 2015/16 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 34 | 2990 | 87% | 0 | 6 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1260 | 1241 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 34 | 2963 | 87% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1320 | 1182 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Motherwell FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1291 |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | Motherwell FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1367 |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 5 | 480 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Partick Thistle FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 4 | 360 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 2 | 127 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Halsti Superliga · 2019 | 35 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Dmytro Chygrynskyi Super League 1 · 2022 | 36 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Sergiy Loginov Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Ante Kulusic Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €325k | €150k | fell |
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2020 | 33 | €325k | €250k | fell |
| Konstantinos Fliskas Super League 1 · 2016 | 36 | €250k | €150k | fell |
| Sergiy Borzenko Premier Liga · 2020 | 34 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Niklas Backman Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €325k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hibernian FC | Motherwell FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 31 Jan 2020 | St. Mirren | Hibernian FC | Unknown | €350k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Partick Thistle | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Chesterfield | Partick Thistle | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Dundee FC | Chesterfield | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Dumbarton | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | St. Mirren | Dumbarton | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 May 2013 | Dumbarton | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 Jan 2013 | St. Mirren | Dumbarton | Free / loan | €100k |
| 26 Jan 2013 | Queen's Park | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €100k |
| 24 Nov 2012 | St. Mirren | Queen's Park | Free / loan | €100k |
| 19 Sept 2012 | Without Club | St. Mirren | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Queen's Park | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Queen's P. U20 | Queen's Park | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.