
Daley Blind
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Daley Blind's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 77.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €524k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2610 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 77 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1413
- Opponent strength
- 1474
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €386k – €1.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 71% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -76% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Girona FC | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2610 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1474 | 1413 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Girona FC | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2780 | 81% | 0 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1496 | 1403 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Girona FC | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2972 | 87% | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1477 | 1621 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 13 | 943 | 31% | 0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.06 | 1278 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CB | 4 | 131 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1491 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | LB | 34 | 2816 | 92% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1316 | 1749 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 23 | 1965 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 1338 | 1722 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 20 | 1745 | 78% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 1333 | 1680 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 2973 | 97% | 5 | 4 | 0.27 | 0.09 | 1331 | 1746 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester United | Premier League | LB | 7 | 361 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1478 | 1747 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester United | Premier League | LB | 23 | 1829 | 53% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1524 | 1694 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Manchester United | Premier League | CB | 35 | 3116 | 91% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1516 | 1619 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Manchester United | Premier League | DM | 25 | 2172 | 64% | 2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.12 | 1536 | 1670 | 1.06 |
| 2014/15 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 3 | 198 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 1431 | 1543 | 0.52 |
| 2013/14 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 29 | 2509 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1335 | 1551 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | CB | 34 | 2885 | 94% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.06 | 1354 | 1544 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Girona FC | 4 | 323 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 2 | 150 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Girona FC | 3 | 241 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 410 | 0 | 0 | 1745 |
| 2022/23 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 572 | 1 | 1 | 1618 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 255 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 415 | 0 | 0 | 1650 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 245 | 0 | 0 | 1602 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 225 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 428 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1500 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1649 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 103 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1714 |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 465 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Ajax Amsterdam | 6 | 401 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 540 | 1 | 1 | 1579 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 11 | 971 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 7 | 660 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 476 | 0 | 0 | 1640 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1514 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1545 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 4 | 356 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jérémy Sorbon Ligue 1 · 2018 | 35 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Loïc Perrin Ligue 1 · 2020 | 35 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Ismaël Traoré Ligue 1 · 2020 | 34 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Bruno Alves Serie A · 2020 | 39 | €800k | €100k | fell |
| Dario Dainelli Serie A · 2013 | 34 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Bostjan Cesar Serie A · 2015 | 33 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Briguel Liga Portugal · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Maurizio Domizzi Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €600k | €200k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jul 2023 | Bayern Munich | Girona | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 5 Jan 2023 | Ajax | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 17 Jul 2018 | Man Utd | Ajax | €16.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Sept 2014 | Ajax | Man Utd | €17.5M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2010 | FC Groningen | Ajax | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Ajax | FC Groningen | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 1998 | AFC Youth | Ajax Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.