Tom Cairney
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tom Cairney's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.17x the positional average in the league (765 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 83.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €177k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 765 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 84 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1576
- Opponent strength
- 1636
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €238k – €593k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -71% to +7%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 765 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CM | 24 | 765 | 22% | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 1636 | 1576 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CM | 25 | 613 | 18% | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.23 | 1542 | 1555 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CM | 34 | 1478 | 43% | 1 | 4 | 0.30 | 0.27 | 1575 | 1524 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CM | 33 | 972 | 28% | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.25 | 1579 | 1495 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | CM | 10 | 760 | 22% | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.36 | 1506 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2018/19 | Fulham FC | Premier League | AM | 31 | 2198 | 64% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.26 | 1553 | 1350 | 1.22 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 99 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 93 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 4 | 259 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Fulham FC | 1 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Culio Laliga · 2016 | 33 | €500k | €850k | rose |
| Juan Rodríguez Laliga · 2014 | 32 | €600k | €800k | rose |
| Seydou Keita Laliga · 2014 | 34 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Duda Laliga · 2016 | 36 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Mathieu Flamini Laliga · 2018 | 34 | €600k | €600k | flat |
| Javier Baraja Laliga · 2014 | 34 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Quique de Lucas Laliga · 2013 | 35 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Adam Lallana Premier League · 2023 | 35 | €1.2M | €750k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2015 | Blackburn | Fulham | €4.2M | €3.0M |
| 2 Jan 2014 | Hull City | Blackburn | Unknown | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Blackburn | Hull City | Free / loan | €750k |
| 2 Aug 2013 | Hull City | Blackburn | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Hull U18 | Hull City | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Leeds Youth | Hull U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.