Kelle Roos

34 yrs · Goalkeeper · Netherlands
Kilmarnock FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: right · Height: 196 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€100k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€43k – €133k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€81k – €304k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€74k – €101k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€52k – €261k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€43k – €133k
Model value (performance-implied)€81k – €304k
Projected value (24 months)€74k – €101k
Dashed line: current market value (€100k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Kelle Roos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average2.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €57k vs market €100k
Expected appreciationNeutral-8% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
990 (33% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
2 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1104
Opponent strength
1225
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€74k – €101k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -38% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 990 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
38 (all positions)
Relative output kept
78%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
74%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipGK1199033%000.000.00122511040.31
2023/24Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipGK332970100%000.000.00124811860.34
2022/23Aberdeen FCScottish PremiershipGK26234079%000.000.00130412840.40

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Fa CupNotts County112000—
2025/26Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC19000—
2023/24Scottish Fa CupAberdeen FC330000—
2023/24Uefa Europa League QualifyingAberdeen FC2180001377

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Artem Kychak
Premier Liga · 2024
35€100k€50kfell
Bojan Saranov
Super League 1 · 2022
35€100k€150krose
Vladimir Bajic
Super League 1 · 2021
34€200k€150kfell
Costel Pantilimon
Super Lig · 2021
34€250k€250kflat
Yevgen Past
Premier Liga · 2024
36€100k€100kflat
Ögmundur Kristinsson
Super League 1 · 2024
35€150k€150kflat
Michael Törnes
Superliga · 2019
33€100k€50kfell
Eray Birnican
Super Lig · 2021
33€75k€50kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
31 May 2026Kilmarnock FCNotts CountyFree / loan€100k
15 Jan 2026Notts CountyKilmarnock FCFree / loan€275k
22 Jul 2025TriestinaNotts CountyFree / loan€300k
18 Jul 2024Aberdeen FCTriestinaFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2022DerbyAberdeen FCFree / loan€500k
28 Dec 2017PlymouthDerbyFree / loan€100k
8 Dec 2017DerbyPlymouthFree / loan€100k
16 Oct 2017Port ValeDerbyFree / loan€100k
16 Sept 2017DerbyPort ValeFree / loan€100k
10 Jan 2017Bristol RoversDerbyFree / loan€100k
24 Aug 2016DerbyBristol RoversFree / loan€100k
31 May 2016AFC WimbledonDerbyFree / loan€100k
1 Feb 2016DerbyAFC WimbledonFree / loan€100k
1 Sept 2015RotherhamDerbyFree / loan€50k
15 Jul 2015DerbyRotherhamFree / loan€50k
23 Jan 2014NuneatonDerby€25k€50k
12 Nov 2013NuenenNuneatonFree / loan€50k
1 Jul 2013NEC NijmegenNuenenFree / loan€50k
22 Aug 2012Willem II U21NEC NijmegenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011PSV U19Willem II U21Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2008PSV U17PSV U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007PSV Yth.PSV U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.