
Kelle Roos
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Kelle Roos's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 2.4th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €57k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -8% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 990 (33% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1104
- Opponent strength
- 1225
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €74k – €101k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 990 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 38 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 74%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 11 | 990 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1225 | 1104 | 0.31 |
| 2023/24 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 33 | 2970 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1248 | 1186 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Aberdeen FC | Scottish Premiership | GK | 26 | 2340 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1304 | 1284 | 0.40 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Notts County | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Aberdeen FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Aberdeen FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1377 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Kychak Premier Liga · 2024 | 35 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Bojan Saranov Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €100k | €150k | rose |
| Vladimir Bajic Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Costel Pantilimon Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Yevgen Past Premier Liga · 2024 | 36 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Ögmundur Kristinsson Super League 1 · 2024 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Michael Törnes Superliga · 2019 | 33 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Eray Birnican Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €75k | €50k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2026 | Kilmarnock FC | Notts County | Free / loan | €100k |
| 15 Jan 2026 | Notts County | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €275k |
| 22 Jul 2025 | Triestina | Notts County | Free / loan | €300k |
| 18 Jul 2024 | Aberdeen FC | Triestina | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Derby | Aberdeen FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Dec 2017 | Plymouth | Derby | Free / loan | €100k |
| 8 Dec 2017 | Derby | Plymouth | Free / loan | €100k |
| 16 Oct 2017 | Port Vale | Derby | Free / loan | €100k |
| 16 Sept 2017 | Derby | Port Vale | Free / loan | €100k |
| 10 Jan 2017 | Bristol Rovers | Derby | Free / loan | €100k |
| 24 Aug 2016 | Derby | Bristol Rovers | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 May 2016 | AFC Wimbledon | Derby | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Derby | AFC Wimbledon | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Sept 2015 | Rotherham | Derby | Free / loan | €50k |
| 15 Jul 2015 | Derby | Rotherham | Free / loan | €50k |
| 23 Jan 2014 | Nuneaton | Derby | €25k | €50k |
| 12 Nov 2013 | Nuenen | Nuneaton | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | NEC Nijmegen | Nuenen | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Aug 2012 | Willem II U21 | NEC Nijmegen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | PSV U19 | Willem II U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | PSV U17 | PSV U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | PSV Yth. | PSV U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.