Robin Yalçın
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Yalçın's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 47
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €322k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1624 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1270
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €184k – €487k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -41% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1624 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CB | 19 | 1624 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1270 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CB | 31 | 2647 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1274 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2022/23 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | DM | 22 | 1149 | 35% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1298 | 1275 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | CB | 34 | 2606 | 72% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1295 | 1341 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 31 | 2597 | 85% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1341 | 1185 | 0.45 |
| 2018/19 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | DM | 15 | 864 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1387 | 1324 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | Yeni Malatyaspor | Super Lig | DM | 11 | 625 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.18 | 1391 | 1320 | 0.58 |
| 2016/17 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | DM | 26 | 2038 | 67% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1381 | 1291 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | DM | 20 | 1486 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1419 | 1294 | 0.64 |
| 2013/14 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | DM | 3 | 35 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1519 | 1398 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sivasspor | 1 | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1475 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Sivasspor | 6 | 457 | 0 | 1 | 1511 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Yeni Malatyaspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Lopes Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €650k | €150k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kolovetsios Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| Ricky Foster Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 33 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Achilleas Sarakatsanos Super League 1 · 2014 | 32 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Nikola Zizic Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €350k | €250k | fell |
| Kristoffer Pallesen Superliga · 2023 | 33 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Diamantis Chouchoumis Super League 1 · 2024 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Zisopoulos Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €450k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | Eyüpspor | Igdir FK | €97k | €600k |
| 20 Jul 2023 | Sivasspor | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SC Paderborn | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Jul 2021 | Sivasspor | SC Paderborn | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 17 Aug 2020 | Y. Malatyaspor | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €900k |
| 10 Jan 2019 | C. Rizespor | Y. Malatyaspor | Free / loan | €750k |
| 4 Aug 2015 | Stuttgart | C. Rizespor | €250k | €300k |
| 21 Mar 2014 | Stuttgart II | Stuttgart | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stuttgart U19 | Stuttgart II | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stuttgart U17 | Stuttgart U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Deggendorf Yth. | Stuttgart U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.