Matthias Ginter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matthias Ginter's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-10.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.6M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 89.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2836 (93% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1551
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 67% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -77% to -35%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2836 | 93% | 3 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1478 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2560 | 84% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1478 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1917 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1500 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 4 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1524 | 1561 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 28 | 2337 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1514 | 1535 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1523 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 31 | 2781 | 91% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 1524 | 1604 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2380 | 78% | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 1512 | 1528 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.15 | 1511 | 1521 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 29 | 2475 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1520 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | RB | 24 | 1889 | 62% | 3 | 7 | 0.48 | 0.22 | 1490 | 1718 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 840 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1518 | 1622 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3039 | 99% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1555 | 1454 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1948 | 64% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1452 | 1547 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 14 | 1260 | 2 | 2 | 1490 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 510 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 9 | 754 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 648 | 0 | 2 | 1483 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 5 | 510 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1738 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 534 | 0 | 1 | 1649 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 375 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 9 | 538 | 1 | 1 | 1508 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 208 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1443 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 318 | 0 | 0 | 1623 |
| 2014/15 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1854 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 5 | 449 | 1 | 0 | 1486 |
| 2013/14 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 300 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marko Basa Ligue 1 · 2013 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Manuel Pasqual Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €4.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gonzalo Rodríguez Serie A · 2016 | 32 | €7.0M | €500k | fell |
| Damien Da Silva Ligue 1 · 2020 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Christian Maggio Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Naldo Bundesliga · 2013 | 31 | €5.0M | €5.0M | flat |
| Andrea Masiello Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Renato Civelli Ligue 1 · 2013 | 30 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Mönchengladbach | Freiburg | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 4 Jul 2017 | Dortmund | Mönchengladbach | €17.0M | €15.0M |
| 17 Jul 2014 | Freiburg | Dortmund | €10.0M | €12.0M |
| 23 Jan 2012 | SC Freiburg U19 | Freiburg | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SC Freiburg U17 | SC Freiburg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Freiburg Yth. | SC Freiburg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | SC March Yth. | Freiburg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.