Bebeto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bebeto's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 21.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €33k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1901 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1304
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €39k – €104k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 24 | 1901 | 62% | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 1304 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 22 | 1383 | 45% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.15 | 1345 | 1230 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | RB | 25 | 1470 | 48% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.17 | 1334 | 1242 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 15 | 1214 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1386 | 1298 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 22 | 1803 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 1362 | 1299 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CS Marítimo | Liga Portugal | RB | 32 | 2841 | 93% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1354 | 1359 | 0.64 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | CS Marítimo | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1495 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egemen Korkmaz Super Lig · 2019 | 37 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Nuno Santos Liga Portugal · 2016 | 36 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Kaká Liga Portugal · 2017 | 36 | €100k | €25k | fell |
| Matt Lockwood Scottish Premiership · 2013 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Dmitri Andreev Premier Liga · 2017 | 37 | €50k | €25k | fell |
| Volodymyr Polyovyi Premier Liga · 2020 | 35 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Timothy Derijck Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 36 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Fernando Varela Liga Portugal · 2024 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Sept 2020 | Marítimo | Tondela | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Moto Club-MA | Marítimo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jan 2016 | Without Club | São Bento (SP) | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 Oct 2015 | Caxias-RS | Without Club | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Rio Verde | Caxias-RS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2012 | EC Bahia | Rio Verde | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2009 | Cruzeiro U20 | EC Bahia | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Sept 2009 | EC Bahia | Cruzeiro U20 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Apr 2009 | Cruzeiro U20 | EC Bahia | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.