Geoffrey Kondogbia
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Geoffrey Kondogbia's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.57x the positional average in the league (593 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 75.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -58% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 593 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 76 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1504
- Opponent strength
- 1487
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €675k – €1.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; role change CB -> DM; relative output up 112% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -65% to -46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 593 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 10 | 593 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1487 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | CB | 25 | 2021 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1458 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | DM | 26 | 1458 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1480 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 20 | 1000 | 29% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 1497 | 1656 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 28 | 1884 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 1528 | 1677 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | DM | 25 | 594 | 17% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1530 | 1728 | 1.10 |
| 2020/21 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 5 | 440 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1501 | 1501 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 27 | 1806 | 53% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.13 | 1549 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 19 | 1244 | 36% | 1 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.21 | 1570 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CM | 31 | 2618 | 77% | 4 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.26 | 1573 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 24 | 1715 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 1478 | 1528 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 26 | 1995 | 58% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 1468 | 1540 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | CM | 23 | 1912 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1429 | 1613 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | DM | 26 | 1569 | 46% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1487 | 1585 | 0.79 |
| 2013/14 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | DM | 2 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1551 | 1654 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | DM | 31 | 1914 | 56% | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1507 | 1528 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Olympique Marseille | 4 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2025/26 | Trophee Des Champions | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1832 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 13 | 1097 | 1 | 1 | 1562 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Olympique Marseille | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1430 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 4 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Atlético de Madrid | 9 | 578 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Supercopa | Atlético de Madrid | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1553 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Atlético de Madrid | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 405 | 1 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 409 | 0 | 0 | 1643 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 3 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 435 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 316 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 8 | 717 | 1 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sevilla FC | 1 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1365 |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 6 | 448 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Diarra Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Mounir Obbadi Ligue 1 · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €300k | fell |
| Riccardo Montolivo Serie A · 2017 | 32 | €3.5M | €500k | fell |
| Christoph Kramer Bundesliga · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.7M | fell |
| Leon Britton Premier League · 2015 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Manu Trigueros Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Simone Missiroli Serie A · 2017 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fabien Lemoine Ligue 1 · 2017 | 30 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Atlético | Marseille | €8.0M | €14.0M |
| 3 Nov 2020 | Valencia | Atlético | €16.0M | €17.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Inter | Valencia | €22.0M | €30.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Valencia | Inter | Free / loan | €30.0M |
| 21 Aug 2017 | Inter | Valencia | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Monaco | Inter | €36.0M | €16.0M |
| 30 Aug 2013 | Sevilla FC | Monaco | €20.0M | €15.0M |
| 24 Jul 2012 | Lens | Sevilla FC | €4.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | RC Lens B | Lens | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | RC Lens U17 | RC Lens B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Lens Yth. | RC Lens U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | US Sénart Jgd | Lens Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.