
Phillipp Mwene
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Phillipp Mwene's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2073 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 24
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €922k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -51% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2073 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.26
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1504
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €431k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -72% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 29 | 2073 | 68% | 1 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 1504 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 32 | 2618 | 86% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 1501 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 2003 | 65% | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1496 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 25 | 1691 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1343 | 1649 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | RB | 19 | 1414 | 46% | 3 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 1340 | 1641 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LM | 20 | 1675 | 55% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.22 | 1555 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | LB | 4 | 315 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1428 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | RB | 6 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1510 | 1488 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | 1334 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 2 | 149 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 541 | 0 | 0 | 1574 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1605 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 141 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | PSV Eindhoven | 6 | 496 | 0 | 1 | 1470 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1521 |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makoto Hasebe Bundesliga · 2017 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Márcio Abreu Premier Liga · 2013 | 33 | €1.0M | €900k | flat |
| Jaime Valdés Serie A · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Alejandro Domínguez Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Alexandru Gatcan Premier Liga · 2016 | 32 | €1.5M | €400k | fell |
| Blagoy Georgiev Premier Liga · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Steed Malbranque Ligue 1 · 2013 | 33 | €1.8M | €500k | fell |
| Roberto Trashorras Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2023 | PSV | Mainz | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Mainz | PSV | Free / loan | €2.2M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | 1.FC K'lautern | Mainz | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 18 Jul 2016 | Stuttgart II | 1.FC K'lautern | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Stuttgart U19 | Stuttgart II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Stuttgart U17 | Stuttgart U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | AKA Austria U16 | Stuttgart U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AKA Austria U15 | AKA Austria U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Austria Yth. | Austria U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.