Phillipp Mwene

32 yrs · Left-back (also LM, RB) · Austria
1.FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 170 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€386k – €1.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€2.3M – €6.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€431k – €1.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€553k – €6.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€386k – €1.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€2.3M – €6.7M
Projected value (24 months)€431k – €1.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Phillipp Mwene's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-6.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (2073 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 24

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh81th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €922k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-51% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2073 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.26
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.24
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
81 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1485
Opponent strength
1504
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€431k – €1.1M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -72% to -8%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM29207368%150.260.24150414850.94
2024/251.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM32261886%150.210.20150115150.94
2023/241.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM23200365%120.130.13149614891.01
2022/23PSV EindhovenEredivisieRB25169155%010.050.04134316490.58
2021/22PSV EindhovenEredivisieRB19141446%310.250.13134016410.60
2020/211.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLM20167555%120.160.22155514811.06
2019/201.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaLB431510%000.000.07142814711.06
2018/191.FSV Mainz 05BundesligaRB62709%000.000.09151014881.05

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League Qualifying1.FSV Mainz 052161001334
2025/26World CupAustria214900—
2025/26Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 0516900—
2024/25Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05215800—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeaguePSV Eindhoven7541001574
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingPSV Eindhoven3180011605
2022/23Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven314100—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeaguePSV Eindhoven6496011470
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingPSV Eindhoven5430001521
2021/22Knvb BekerPSV Eindhoven327001—
2021/22Johan Cruijff SchaalPSV Eindhoven145001722
2018/19Dfb Pokal1.FSV Mainz 05112010—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Makoto Hasebe
Bundesliga · 2017
33€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Márcio Abreu
Premier Liga · 2013
33€1.0M€900kflat
Jaime Valdés
Serie A · 2013
32€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Alejandro Domínguez
Laliga · 2013
32€2.0M€2.0Mflat
Alexandru Gatcan
Premier Liga · 2016
32€1.5M€400kfell
Blagoy Georgiev
Premier Liga · 2015
34€1.0M€100kfell
Steed Malbranque
Ligue 1 · 2013
33€1.8M€500kfell
Roberto Trashorras
Laliga · 2013
32€2.0M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
23 Aug 2023PSVMainz€1.0M€3.0M
1 Jul 2021MainzPSVFree / loan€2.2M
1 Jul 20181.FC K'lauternMainzFree / loan€1.0M
18 Jul 2016Stuttgart II1.FC K'lauternFree / loan€300k
1 Jul 2013Stuttgart U19Stuttgart IIUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2011Stuttgart U17Stuttgart U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010AKA Austria U16Stuttgart U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009AKA Austria U15AKA Austria U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Austria Yth.Austria U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.