Nikolai Alho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolai Alho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 6.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €129k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1030 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1138
- Opponent strength
- 1250
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €85k – €256k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -44% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1030 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RB | 14 | 1030 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 1250 | 1138 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | Super League 1 | RB | 16 | 1192 | 51% | 0 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1298 | 1185 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | RB | 20 | 1615 | 69% | 1 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1242 | 1144 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | RB | 24 | 2117 | 90% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1251 | 1219 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | RB | 8 | 652 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1260 | 1195 | 0.39 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | A.G.S Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 2 | 135 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordão Diogo Super League 1 · 2017 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Simon Ramsden Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 34 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Brian Hämäläinen Superliga · 2021 | 32 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Sven Nieuwpoort Eredivisie · 2024 | 31 | €275k | €275k | flat |
| Strahil Popov Super Lig · 2023 | 33 | €225k | €150k | fell |
| Hasan Hatipoglu Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Stavros Petavrakis Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| David Raven Scottish Premiership · 2017 | 32 | €325k | €325k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Asteras Aktor | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Volos NFC | Asteras Aktor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 9 Jan 2022 | MTK Budapest | Volos NFC | €70k | €350k |
| 15 Jan 2021 | HJK Helsinki | MTK Budapest | Free / loan | €400k |
| 6 Feb 2018 | Halmstads BK | HJK Helsinki | Free / loan | €125k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | HJK Helsinki | Halmstads BK | Free / loan | €300k |
| 31 Dec 2012 | FC Lahti | HJK Helsinki | Free / loan | €50k |
| 22 Aug 2012 | HJK Helsinki | FC Lahti | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | HJK Klubi 04 | HJK Helsinki | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | HJK U19 | HJK Klubi 04 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.