Patrick Mainka
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Patrick Mainka's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3060 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 70 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1323
- Opponent strength
- 1498
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €775k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 55% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -78% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1498 | 1323 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1501 | 1353 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | Bundesliga | CB | 34 | 3060 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1521 | 1424 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1390 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1. Fußballclub Heidenheim 1846 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oswaldo Vizcarrondo Ligue 1 · 2015 | 31 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Simon Francis Premier League · 2016 | 31 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Uwe Hünemeier Bundesliga · 2015 | 29 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Lukas Tesak Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Ignasi Miquel Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Oier Sanjurjo Laliga · 2017 | 31 | €1.8M | €1.2M | fell |
| Pablo Martínez Ligue 1 · 2020 | 31 | €2.5M | €500k | fell |
| Romain Thomas Ligue 1 · 2021 | 33 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2018 | B. Dortmund II | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €200k |
| 5 Jan 2016 | W. Bremen II | B. Dortmund II | Unknown | €150k |
| 17 Jul 2014 | A. Bielefeld II | W. Bremen II | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Bielefeld U19 | A. Bielefeld II | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Bielefeld U17 | Bielefeld U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.