Hélder Tavares
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hélder Tavares's performance-implied value at EUR 0.0M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.0M-0.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (589 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 5.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 36.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €34k vs market €50k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 589 (19% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 6 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1334
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €40k – €104k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 589 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 37: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 20 | 589 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1334 | 1194 | 0.58 |
| 2018/19 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 15 | 1332 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1373 | 1299 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 32 | 2462 | 80% | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 1372 | 1283 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | CM | 25 | 2000 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1356 | 1229 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | AM | 30 | 2267 | 74% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.25 | 1419 | 1239 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bilal Kisa Super Lig · 2019 | 36 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Martin Thomsen Superliga · 2017 | 35 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Marco Soares Liga Portugal · 2019 | 35 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Maksim Semakin Premier Liga · 2019 | 36 | €25k | €25k | flat |
| Artem Fidler Premier Liga · 2020 | 37 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Aleksandr Ryazantsev Premier Liga · 2023 | 37 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Aleksandr Sheshukov Premier Liga · 2017 | 34 | €100k | €25k | fell |
| Rúben Andrade Liga Portugal · 2016 | 34 | €150k | €150k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Voluntari | Tondela | Free / loan | €200k |
| 20 Jan 2021 | Without Club | FC Voluntari | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Dec 2020 | Giresunspor | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 4 Sept 2020 | Altay SK | Giresunspor | Free / loan | €300k |
| 18 Jan 2019 | Tondela | Altay SK | Unknown | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Otelul Galati | Tondela | Free / loan | €300k |
| 8 Sept 2014 | Beira-Mar | Otelul Galati | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Pinhalnovense | Beira-Mar | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Tojal | Pinhalnovense | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Olivais U19 | Tojal | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.