Charalampos Mavrias
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Charalampos Mavrias's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 76
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €90k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1193 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.13
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1182
- Opponent strength
- 1248
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €79k – €274k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; league level up (+40 Elo); role change RM -> RB.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -51% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1193 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 15 | 1193 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1248 | 1182 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RM | 24 | 1864 | 80% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 1291 | 1156 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 17 | 761 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 1271 | 1147 | 0.42 |
| 2018/19 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1127 | 1351 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RW | 3 | 170 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1234 | 1423 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | Sunderland AFC | Premier League | LW | 4 | 150 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.52 | 1577 | 1465 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 26 | 1494 | 55% | 2 | 3 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1351 | 1372 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 109 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 5 | 450 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 259 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 6 | 236 | 0 | 0 | 1498 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 4 | 168 | 2 | 0 | 1505 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeppe Brandrup Superliga · 2018 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Nicolas Timmermans Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 32 | €400k | €175k | fell |
| Athanasios Panteliadis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Richard Tait Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 33 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Antonio Luna Super League 1 · 2024 | 33 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Fonsi Super League 1 · 2017 | 31 | €450k | €200k | fell |
| Anastasios Papazoglou Super League 1 · 2019 | 31 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kolovetsios Super Lig · 2022 | 31 | €475k | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Sept 2023 | Apol. Limassol | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Omonia Nicosia | Apol. Limassol | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Hibernian FC | Omonia Nicosia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 17 Oct 2018 | Without Club | Hibernian FC | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | HNK Rijeka | Without Club | Unknown | €300k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Karlsruher SC | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Sept 2016 | Without Club | Karlsruher SC | Unknown | €750k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | Sunderland | Without Club | Unknown | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | F. Düsseldorf | Sunderland | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 27 Jan 2016 | Sunderland | F. Düsseldorf | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Panathinaikos | Sunderland | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 2 Feb 2015 | Sunderland | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 22 Aug 2013 | Panathinaikos | Sunderland | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jan 2011 | PAO U20 | Panathinaikos | Unknown | €250k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.