Karol Mets
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Karol Mets's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 51.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €402k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1934 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €198k – €524k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 34 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -36% (IQR -53% to -25%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1934 | 63% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1500 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1524 | 1330 | 0.94 |
| 2018/19 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 15 | 1348 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1353 | 1177 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 25 | 1844 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1343 | 1253 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 70 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasilios Torosidis Serie A · 2017 | 32 | €800k | €700k | flat |
| Mattia Cassani Serie A · 2016 | 33 | €1.0M | €100k | fell |
| Stefano Lucchini Serie A · 2015 | 35 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| Domenico Maietta Serie A · 2017 | 35 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Giulio Donati Serie A · 2020 | 30 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Sebastian Griesbeck Bundesliga · 2022 | 32 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Nenad Tomovic Serie A · 2020 | 33 | €475k | €300k | fell |
| Alaeddine Yahia Ligue 1 · 2016 | 35 | €500k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | St. Pauli | Without Club | Unknown | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | FC Zürich | St. Pauli | €450k | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2023 | St. Pauli | FC Zürich | Free / loan | €800k |
| 5 Jan 2023 | FC Zürich | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €500k |
| 7 Jan 2022 | CSKA-Sofia | FC Zürich | €200k | €500k |
| 6 Sept 2021 | Al-Ettifaq | CSKA-Sofia | Free / loan | €600k |
| 11 Oct 2020 | AIK | Al-Ettifaq | €385k | €900k |
| 14 Mar 2019 | NAC Breda | AIK | €300k | €500k |
| 31 Jul 2017 | Viking FK | NAC Breda | €100k | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2015 | FC Flora | Viking FK | €170k | €350k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | JK Viljandi II | FC Flora | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Viljandi U17 | JK Viljandi II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2007 | Viljandi Jug. | Viljandi U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.