Paulo Oliveira

34 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal

SC Braga · Liga Portugal · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm

Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026

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Market value

€400k

Updated today

Estimated acquisition

€118k – €524k

Estimated · 20–80% range

Model value

€532k – €1.6M

Performance-implied · estimated

Projected (24m)

€159k – €358k

Resale range · estimated

Potential value gap

€8k – €1.5M

Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€118k – €524k

Model value (performance-implied)€532k – €1.6M

Projected value (24 months)€159k – €358k

Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Paulo Oliveira's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Performance	Above average	63.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
Age	Unfavorable	34.5 years
Acquisition cost	Favorable	est. €279k vs market €400k
Expected appreciation	Low	-22% over ~2 years (model)
Value gap	Very large	weak predictor on its own
Development	Low
League translation	Moderate	league coefficient 0.58
Tactical fit	Not evaluated	Requires event/role data not available from the current free source.
Risk	Very High
Data confidence	Low

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes: 819 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90: 0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90: 0.02
xG, xA, progression: Data unavailable
Defensive actions: Data unavailable
Performance percentile: 64 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength: 0.58 (rank 9)
Team strength (Elo): 1533
Opponent strength: 1240
Possession, role: Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development: Low
Trajectory: declining
Breakout probability: Age > 23
Resale range (24m): €159k – €358k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 29 pts; relative output down 48% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -71% to -29%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

▲Small sample: 819 league minutes last season.
▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers: 66 (DEF)
Relative output kept: 57%–168%
Held a regular role (900+ min): 76%
Confidence: Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

Season	Club	League	Pos	Apps	Min	Min share	G	A	G+A/90	Adj. G+A/90	Opp. Elo	Team Elo	League str.
2025/26	SC Braga	Liga Portugal	CB	17	819	27%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1240	1533	0.58
2024/25	SC Braga	Liga Portugal	CB	21	1713	56%	1	0	0.05	0.04	1346	1478	0.51
2023/24	SC Braga	Liga Portugal	CB	20	1674	55%	0	2	0.11	0.07	1371	1499	0.58
2022/23	SC Braga	Liga Portugal	CB	20	1476	48%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1349	1557	0.68
2021/22	SC Braga	Liga Portugal	CB	28	2352	77%	1	0	0.04	0.04	1351	1514	0.67
2020/21	SD Eibar	Laliga	CB	31	2640	77%	0	1	0.03	0.06	1555	1415	1.10
2019/20	SD Eibar	Laliga	CB	26	2090	61%	1	0	0.04	0.06	1533	1506	1.16
2018/19	SD Eibar	Laliga	CB	28	2242	66%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1556	1531	1.14
2017/18	SD Eibar	Laliga	CB	26	2215	65%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1551	1520	1.11
2016/17	Sporting CP	Liga Portugal	CB	13	918	30%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1346	1521	0.58
2015/16	Sporting CP	Liga Portugal	CB	19	1566	51%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1394	1608	0.58
2014/15	Sporting CP	Liga Portugal	CB	27	2346	77%	1	0	0.04	0.04	1377	1593	0.68
2013/14	Vitória Guimarães SC	Liga Portugal	CB	28	2520	93%	0	0	0.00	0.02	1459	1323	0.74
2012/13	Vitória Guimarães SC	Liga Portugal	CB	18	1620	60%	1	0	0.06	0.07	1416	1409	0.86

Cups & continental competitions

Season	Competition	Club	Apps	Min	A	Avg opp. Elo
2025/26	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	SC Braga	4	332	0	1392
2025/26	Uefa Europa League	SC Braga	4	253	0	1501
2024/25	Uefa Europa League	SC Braga	5	373	0	1569
2024/25	Uefa Europa League Qualifying	SC Braga	1	52	0	1496
2023/24	Uefa Europa League	SC Braga	2	180	0	1540
2023/24	Uefa Champions League Qualifying	SC Braga	1	2	0	1455
2022/23	Uefa Europa League	SC Braga	6	464	1	1531
2021/22	Uefa Europa League	SC Braga	11	864	0	1508
2021/22	Supercup Candido De Oliveira	SC Braga	1	90	0	1617
2019/20	Copa Del Rey	SD Eibar	2	180	0	—
2018/19	Copa Del Rey	SD Eibar	1	55	0	—
2017/18	Copa Del Rey	SD Eibar	1	90	0	—
2016/17	Uefa Champions League	Sporting CP	2	148	0	1622
2015/16	Uefa Europa League	Sporting CP	3	199	0	1536
2015/16	Uefa Champions League Qualifying	Sporting CP	2	180	0	1668
2015/16	Supercup Candido De Oliveira	Sporting CP	1	90	0	1719
2014/15	Uefa Champions League	Sporting CP	5	386	0	1628
2014/15	Uefa Europa League	Sporting CP	2	180	0	1702
2013/14	Uefa Europa League	Vitória Guimarães SC	6	540	0	1492
2013/14	Supercup Candido De Oliveira	Vitória Guimarães SC	1	90	0	1759

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)	Age	Value then	~2y later	Outcome
Mikael Antonsson Superliga · 2016	35	€500k	€150k	fell
Welinton Super Lig · 2023	34	€325k	€125k	fell
Rafinha Jupiler Pro League · 2016	34	€300k	€25k	fell
Damien Marcq Jupiler Pro League · 2022	34	€350k	€200k	fell
Manuel da Costa Super Lig · 2018	32	€700k	€475k	fell
Jardel Liga Portugal · 2020	34	€1.2M	€300k	fell
Necip Uysal Super Lig · 2023	32	€500k	€400k	fell
Vyacheslav Shevchuk Premier Liga · 2016	37	€200k	€200k	flat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

Date	From	To	Fee	MV at time
1 Jul 2021	SD Eibar	Braga	Free / loan	€4.0M
17 Jul 2017	Sporting	SD Eibar	€4.0M	€4.0M
1 Jul 2014	Vit. Guimarães	Sporting	€1.8M	€3.0M
30 Jun 2012	Penafiel	Vit. Guimarães	Free / loan	€700k
1 Aug 2011	Vit. Guimarães	Penafiel	Free / loan	€100k
1 Jul 2011	Vitória SC U19	Vit. Guimarães	Unknown	€100k
1 Jul 2009	Vitória SC U17	Vitória SC U19	Unknown	Data unavailable
1 Jul 2007	Vitória SC U15	Vitória SC U17	Unknown	Data unavailable
1 Jul 2005	Famalicão Yo	Vitória SC U15	Free / loan	Data unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.