Ricardo Esgaio
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ricardo Esgaio's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 36.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €370k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2178 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1263
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €190k – €560k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -39% (IQR -53% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | RB | 26 | 2178 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1263 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 9 | 225 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1310 | 1610 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 28 | 1501 | 49% | 0 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.10 | 1335 | 1675 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 25 | 1314 | 43% | 1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.17 | 1379 | 1669 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 27 | 1462 | 48% | 0 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.17 | 1353 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 32 | 2871 | 94% | 1 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.17 | 1338 | 1493 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RB | 30 | 2544 | 83% | 1 | 5 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1386 | 1522 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 25 | 1996 | 65% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1378 | 1493 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SC Braga | Liga Portugal | RM | 30 | 2572 | 84% | 4 | 10 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 1341 | 1537 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 8 | 496 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1327 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 8 | 611 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1336 | 1608 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Académica Coimbra | Liga Portugal | RB | 15 | 1350 | 44% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.16 | 1395 | 1307 | 0.68 |
| 2014/15 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1464 | 1593 | 0.68 |
| 2012/13 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RB | 3 | 55 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1331 | 1481 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 4 | 169 | 0 | 0 | 1545 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 9 | 528 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 6 | 473 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 3 | 110 | 0 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 8 | 379 | 0 | 2 | 1684 |
| 2021/22 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1493 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 6 | 504 | 1 | 2 | 1526 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1510 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 340 | 0 | 0 | 1422 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1416 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | SC Braga | 8 | 720 | 0 | 3 | 1558 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Braga | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1466 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 3 | 270 | 0 | 2 | 1400 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1791 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paweł Olkowski Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €750k | €150k | fell |
| Pierre Kanstrup Superliga · 2021 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Nikola Zizic Super League 1 · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Murat Akça Super Lig · 2022 | 32 | €200k | €75k | fell |
| André Calisir Superliga · 2022 | 32 | €250k | €200k | fell |
| Maksym Bilyi Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Dimitrios Chatziisaias Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €350k | €450k | rose |
| Athanasios Panteliadis Super League 1 · 2018 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Karagümrük | Gil Vicente | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Sporting | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 3 Jul 2021 | Braga | Sporting | €5.5M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting | Braga | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Coimbra | Sporting | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 31 Jan 2015 | Sporting | Coimbra | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Nazarenos Fo. | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.