Martin Boyle
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Martin Boyle's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.78x the positional average in the league (1713 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Average | 42th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €108k vs market €300k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1713 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.42
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.40
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1281
- Opponent strength
- 1225
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €94k – €275k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 15 pts; relative output down 38% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -55% to -26%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1713 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 31 | 1713 | 58% | 6 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.40 | 1225 | 1280 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 31 | 2167 | 73% | 11 | 5 | 0.66 | 0.67 | 1243 | 1303 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 26 | 2054 | 69% | 3 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.44 | 1249 | 1200 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 12 | 937 | 32% | 5 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 1311 | 1237 | 0.40 |
| 2020/21 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 32 | 2792 | 94% | 11 | 7 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 1295 | 1373 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 20 | 1433 | 53% | 5 | 5 | 0.63 | 0.55 | 1298 | 1317 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 18 | 1422 | 48% | 4 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 1298 | 1351 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Hibernian FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 30 | 2616 | 88% | 5 | 7 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 1302 | 1322 | 0.47 |
| 2014/15 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 18 | 684 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.35 | 1287 | 1182 | 0.41 |
| 2012/13 | Dundee FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 9 | 211 | 6% | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.73 | 1350 | 1176 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 4 | 335 | 3 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 2 | 184 | 0 | 0 | 1391 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 3 | 231 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 5 | 328 | 3 | 0 | 1407 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 2 | 135 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 5 | 468 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 5 | 464 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hibernian FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 3 | 1365 |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Hibernian FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 85 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Scottish Fa Cup | Dundee FC | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karim Soltani Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Pantelis Kapetanos Super League 1 · 2016 | 33 | €450k | €300k | fell |
| André Alves Super League 1 · 2015 | 32 | €450k | €600k | rose |
| Morten ‘Duncan’ Rasmussen Superliga · 2018 | 33 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Richie Foran Scottish Premiership · 2014 | 34 | €625k | €300k | fell |
| Jerónimo Barrales Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €300k | €100k | fell |
| Nordin Amrabat Super League 1 · 2022 | 35 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Volodymyr Lysenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2022 | Al-Faisaly | Hibernian FC | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 21 Jan 2022 | Hibernian FC | Al-Faisaly | €3.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Dundee FC | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 20 May 2015 | Hibernian FC | Dundee FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 3 Jan 2015 | Dundee FC | Hibernian FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 5 May 2013 | Montrose | Dundee FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 25 Jan 2013 | Dundee FC | Montrose | Free / loan | €50k |
| 16 Aug 2012 | Montrose | Dundee FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Montrose U20 | Montrose | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Lewis Utd. | Montrose U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.