
Davy Roef
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Davy Roef's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 61th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2700 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1370
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €700k – €1.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to -23%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 214 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–140%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 30 | 2700 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1370 | 1403 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1366 | 1422 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 12 | 1080 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1398 | 1436 | 0.63 |
| 2022/23 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1307 | 1451 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 9 | 810 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1314 | 1420 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | KAA Gent | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 6 | 540 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1315 | 1390 | 0.55 |
| 2018/19 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1361 | 1276 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 25 | 2250 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1365 | 1277 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 15 | 1350 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1333 | 1576 | 0.62 |
| 2016/17 | Deportivo de La Coruña | Laliga | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1445 | 1440 | 1.11 |
| 2014/15 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1272 | 1460 | 0.54 |
| 2013/14 | RSC Anderlecht | Jupiler Pro League | GK | 1 | 51 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1277 | 1440 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Playoff I | KAA Gent | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1312 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1441 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2022/23 | Volkswagen Supercup | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1512 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1303 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | KAA Gent | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | KAA Gent | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1552 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | RSC Anderlecht | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1524 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RSC Anderlecht | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1382 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | RSC Anderlecht | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillermo Ochoa Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 33 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Sinan Bolat Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Anton Shunin Premier Liga · 2019 | 32 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Dmytro Bezotosnyi Premier Liga · 2014 | 31 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Eduardo Liga Portugal · 2014 | 32 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Johannes Hopf Super Lig · 2017 | 30 | €2.2M | €500k | fell |
| Charles Itandje Super Lig · 2014 | 32 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Guilherme Premier Liga · 2017 | 32 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2020 | RSC Anderlecht | KAA Gent | Free / loan | €725k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Waasland-Beveren | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 22 Aug 2017 | RSC Anderlecht | Waasland-Beveren | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Dep. La Coruña | RSC Anderlecht | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 24 Jan 2017 | RSC Anderlecht | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Anderlecht U21 | RSC Anderlecht | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Anderlecht U17 | Anderlecht U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.