Davy Roef

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Belgium
KAA Gent · Jupiler Pro League · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€2.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€755k – €2.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€805k – €2.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€700k – €1.4M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€2.0M – €1.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€755k – €2.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€805k – €2.6M
Projected value (24 months)€700k – €1.4M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Davy Roef's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-2.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 3

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average61th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.7M vs market €2.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-63% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.65
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2700 (100% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
61 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.65 (rank 6)
Team strength (Elo)
1403
Opponent strength
1370
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€700k – €1.4M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -59% to -23%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
214 (all positions)
Relative output kept
68%–140%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK302700100%000.000.00137014030.65
2024/25KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK26234087%000.000.00136614220.63
2023/24KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK12108040%000.000.00139814360.63
2022/23KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK1090029%000.000.00130714510.58
2021/22KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK981026%000.000.00131414200.49
2020/21KAA GentJupiler Pro LeagueGK654018%000.000.00131513900.55
2018/19SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueGK27243090%000.000.00136112760.65
2017/18SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueGK25225083%000.000.00136512770.63
2016/17RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueGK15135050%000.000.00133315760.62
2016/17Deportivo de La CoruñaLaligaGK1903%000.000.00144514401.11
2014/15RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueGK1903%000.000.00127214600.54
2013/14RSC AnderlechtJupiler Pro LeagueGK1512%000.000.00127714400.49

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Jupiler Pro League Playoff IKAA Gent10900001473
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKAA Gent5480001312
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingKAA Gent5450001441
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingKAA Gent2180001424
2022/23Volkswagen SupercupKAA Gent190001512
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingKAA Gent190001303
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingKAA Gent3270001525
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueKAA Gent3270001552
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueRSC Anderlecht5450001483
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2180001524
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingRSC Anderlecht2180001382
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueRSC Anderlecht190001586

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Guillermo Ochoa
Jupiler Pro League · 2018
33€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Sinan Bolat
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
31€3.0M€2.0Mfell
Anton Shunin
Premier Liga · 2019
32€2.8M€2.5Mflat
Dmytro Bezotosnyi
Premier Liga · 2014
31€2.0M€750kfell
Eduardo
Liga Portugal · 2014
32€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Johannes Hopf
Super Lig · 2017
30€2.2M€500kfell
Charles Itandje
Super Lig · 2014
32€1.8M€1.5Mflat
Guilherme
Premier Liga · 2017
32€4.0M€3.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2020RSC AnderlechtKAA GentFree / loan€725k
30 Jun 2019Waasland-BeverenRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€1.2M
22 Aug 2017RSC AnderlechtWaasland-BeverenFree / loan€1.0M
30 Jun 2017Dep. La CoruñaRSC AnderlechtFree / loan€1.0M
24 Jan 2017RSC AnderlechtDep. La CoruñaFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2012Anderlecht U21RSC AnderlechtUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2011Anderlecht U17Anderlecht U21UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.