Omar Mascarell

33 yrs · Defensive midfielder · Equatorial Guinea
RCD Mallorca · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2026
Market value
€700k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€200k – €939k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€976k – €2.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€264k – €634k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€38k – €2.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€200k – €939k
Model value (performance-implied)€976k – €2.4M
Projected value (24 months)€264k – €634k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Omar Mascarell's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-2.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.30x the positional average in the league (2245 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh75.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.4 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €480k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationLow-19% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €14.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2245 (66% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.16
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
76 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1421
Opponent strength
1488
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€264k – €634k

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 77% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -58% to -32%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26RCD MallorcaLaligaDM30224566%220.160.16148814210.95
2024/25RCD MallorcaLaligaDM32199058%100.050.09150614150.95
2023/24RCD MallorcaLaligaDM29157346%000.000.05146114361.00
2022/23Elche CFLaligaDM28245072%010.040.09150713530.98
2021/22Elche CFLaligaDM32250673%000.000.05151214211.05
2020/21FC Schalke 04BundesligaDM24176758%110.100.12151613031.06
2019/20FC Schalke 04BundesligaDM23202966%010.040.07153414151.06
2018/19FC Schalke 04BundesligaDM1499432%020.180.17149714821.05
2017/18Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaDM977025%100.120.10153414791.04
2016/17Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaDM28245080%000.000.03152914241.06
2015/16Sporting GijónLaligaDM26176952%010.050.09159114651.17
2012/13Real MadridLaligaDM190%000.000.08142317731.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Africa Cup Of NationsEquatorial Guinea322500—
2025/26Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca210300—
2024/25SupercopaRCD Mallorca190001819
2024/25Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca17500—
2023/24Copa Del ReyRCD Mallorca528000—
2022/23Copa Del ReyElche CF211100—
2020/21Dfb PokalFC Schalke 0427700—
2019/20Dfb PokalFC Schalke 04330000—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueFC Schalke 043225001559
2018/19Dfb PokalFC Schalke 04211000—
2017/18Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt324710—
2016/17Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt547901—
2015/16Copa Del ReySporting Gijón211300—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Timofey Kalachev
Premier Liga · 2013
32€800k€350kfell
Pape Diop
Laliga · 2021
35€800k€200kfell
Jérôme Rothen
Ligue 1 · 2013
35€500k€250kfell
Mehdi Mostefa
Ligue 1 · 2017
34€500k€300kfell
Oier Sanjurjo
Laliga · 2021
35€700k€300kfell
Lars Stindl
Bundesliga · 2023
35€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Damien Duff
Premier League · 2013
34€1.5M€600kfell
Fidel
Laliga · 2023
34€1.0M€1.0Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Elche CFRCD Mallorca€600k€3.0M
23 Aug 2021FC Schalke 04Elche CFFree / loan€4.5M
2 Jul 2018Real MadridFC Schalke 04€10.0M€8.0M
1 Jul 2018FrankfurtReal Madrid€4.0M€8.0M
6 Jul 2016Real MadridFrankfurt€1.0M€1.5M
30 Jun 2016Sporting GijónReal MadridFree / loan€1.5M
3 Aug 2015RM CastillaSporting GijónFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2015DerbyRM CastillaFree / loan€500k
6 Aug 2014RM CastillaDerbyFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2011Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Laguna U19Real Madrid U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Omar Mascarell · MoneyballAI