Nikolaos Marinakis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nikolaos Marinakis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Below average | 2.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €48k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 634 (27% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 2 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1225
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €65k – €152k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -50% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 634 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 10 | 634 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1264 | 1225 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 12 | 496 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1355 | 1196 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 9 | 534 | 23% | 1 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.21 | 1246 | 1173 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 10 | 559 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1266 | 1170 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 21 | 1651 | 71% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 1265 | 1199 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 4 | 261 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1318 | 1113 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | Super League 1 | RB | 22 | 1876 | 80% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.15 | 1303 | 1225 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 23 | 1887 | 70% | 0 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.19 | 1318 | 1199 | 0.43 |
| 2017/18 | Panetolikos Agrinio | Super League 1 | RB | 28 | 2271 | 84% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 1285 | 1223 | 0.48 |
| 2016/17 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 7 | 489 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1266 | 1406 | 0.44 |
| 2015/16 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 13 | 974 | 36% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1284 | 1424 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | Niki Volou | Super League 1 | RB | 13 | 1170 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1319 | 975 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | Super League 1 | RB | 18 | 1234 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1291 | 1436 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 5 | 189 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 4 | 186 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1444 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Omilos Filathlon Irakliou FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 118 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | Panetolikos Agrinio | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 196 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 3 | 237 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | Panathinaikos Athlitikos Omilos | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neto Super League 1 · 2015 | 34 | €150k | €100k | fell |
| Oleg Synyogub Premier Liga · 2021 | 32 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Kyriakos Kivrakidis Super League 1 · 2024 | 32 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Pavol Farkas Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Tolga Ünlü Super Lig · 2022 | 33 | €100k | €50k | fell |
| Vangelis Ikonomou Super League 1 · 2020 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Patrick Kristensen Superliga · 2020 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Vyacheslav Ryabov Premier Liga · 2023 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2019 | Panetolikos | OFI Crete | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Panathinaikos | Panetolikos | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Dec 2014 | Niki Volos | Panathinaikos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 7 Aug 2014 | Panathinaikos | Niki Volos | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | PAO U20 | Panathinaikos | Unknown | €150k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.