
Matías Dituro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matías Dituro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 55.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 39.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €68k vs market €100k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -0% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1980 (58% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1389
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €76k – €101k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -16% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 39: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Elche CF | Laliga | GK | 22 | 1980 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1483 | 1389 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | GK | 11 | 990 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1289 | 1264 | 0.45 |
| 2021/22 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1530 | 1499 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Elche CF | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manolo Reina Laliga · 2022 | 37 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Sergei Pareiko Premier Liga · 2014 | 37 | €100k | €100k | flat |
| Aleksandr Filimonov Premier Liga · 2015 | 42 | €50k | €50k | flat |
| Christian Puggioni Serie A · 2017 | 36 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Petr Vasek Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Vitaliy Reva Premier Liga · 2013 | 39 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Eiji Kawashima Ligue 1 · 2021 | 38 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Andrés Palop Laliga · 2013 | 40 | €100k | €100k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2024 | Karagümrük | Elche CF | Unknown | €550k |
| 24 Jul 2023 | U. Católica | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Celta de Vigo | U. Católica | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 8 Jul 2021 | U. Católica | Celta de Vigo | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Bolívar | U. Católica | €875k | €525k |
| 31 Dec 2018 | U. Católica | Bolívar | Free / loan | €525k |
| 15 Jan 2018 | Bolívar | U. Católica | Free / loan | €400k |
| 11 Jan 2017 | Antofagasta | Bolívar | Unknown | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Wilstermann | Antofagasta | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Aurora | Wilstermann | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2014 | Rubio Ñú | Aurora | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 14 Jan 2014 | Guillermo Brown | Rubio Ñú | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 Jul 2013 | Douglas Haig | Guillermo Brown | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2012 | Celta Vigo B | Douglas Haig | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Alavés | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | CNI | Alavés | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Bigand | CNI | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.