Gabriel Paulista
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Paulista's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 45.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €229k vs market €500k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 865 (28% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1350
- Opponent strength
- 1276
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €206k – €469k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -59% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 865 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 10 | 865 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1276 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 20 | 1641 | 51% | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1275 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1401 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1494 | 1459 | 1.00 |
| 2023/24 | Atlético de Madrid | Laliga | CB | 5 | 405 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1403 | 1667 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 21 | 1504 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1479 | 1444 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1596 | 47% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 1514 | 1487 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2717 | 79% | 4 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 1570 | 1501 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 33 | 2803 | 82% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1538 | 1548 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2625 | 77% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1537 | 1653 | 1.14 |
| 2017/18 | Valencia CF | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2584 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1550 | 1607 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 19 | 1516 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1513 | 1681 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1761 | 51% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1527 | 1678 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 19 | 1606 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1559 | 1589 | 1.18 |
| 2014/15 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 6 | 349 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.09 | 1521 | 1729 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1519 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1545 | 1585 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 315 | 0 | 0 | 1294 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1423 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 283 | 0 | 0 | 1485 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1377 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 203 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Supercopa | Valencia CF | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1749 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Valencia CF | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1664 |
| 2018/19 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Valencia CF | 7 | 563 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 2 | 131 | 0 | 0 | 1653 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1696 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 4 | 327 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1448 |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 147 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Villarreal CF | 2 | 122 | 0 | 1 | 1432 |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Skrtel Super Lig · 2021 | 37 | €400k | €350k | flat |
| Facundo Sánchez Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €450k | €450k | flat |
| Manuel da Costa Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €475k | €200k | fell |
| Giandomenico Mesto Super League 1 · 2017 | 35 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| José Crespo Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €800k | €300k | fell |
| Sergey Parshivlyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 35 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Yohan Benalouane Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €400k | €125k | fell |
| Dorin Goian Super League 1 · 2016 | 36 | €300k | €300k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jan 2026 | Besiktas | Corinthians | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Atlético | Besiktas | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Valencia | Atlético | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 18 Aug 2017 | Arsenal | Valencia | €11.0M | €13.0M |
| 28 Jan 2015 | Villarreal | Arsenal | €15.0M | €8.0M |
| 21 Aug 2013 | EC Vitória | Villarreal | €3.3M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Vitória B | EC Vitória | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2009 | Taboão Serra | Vitória B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.