Ivan Cavaleiro

The model rates Ivan Cavaleiro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (852 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

852 (28% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.21

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.41

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

22 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.58 (rank 9)

Team strength (Elo)

1194

Opponent strength

1269

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

insufficient

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€139k – €333k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -52% to -13%).

• ▲Small sample: 852 league minutes last season.
• ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
• ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Historical movers

58 (ATT)

Relative output kept

71%–130%

Held a regular role (900+ min)

66%

Confidence

Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.