João Mário
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Mário's performance-implied value at EUR 0.7M-2.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (1133 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 62.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €494k vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1133 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 63 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1497
- Opponent strength
- 1217
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €366k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 17 pts; changed club; team strength up (+131 Elo); role change LW -> AM; relative output down 44% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -75% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1133 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | Super League 1 | AM | 20 | 1028 | 44% | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1217 | 1512 | 0.43 |
| 2025/26 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 2 | 105 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 1212 | 1350 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | LW | 27 | 1602 | 49% | 5 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 1296 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RW | 2 | 155 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 1299 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 31 | 2435 | 80% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.14 | 1349 | 1603 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RM | 33 | 2658 | 87% | 17 | 9 | 0.88 | 0.40 | 1366 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 1698 | 55% | 3 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.15 | 1336 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 28 | 1993 | 65% | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 1341 | 1617 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | Premier Liga | LM | 18 | 1477 | 55% | 1 | 5 | 0.37 | 0.36 | 1403 | 1462 | 0.63 |
| 2018/19 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 20 | 1080 | 32% | 1 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 1460 | 1565 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | West Ham United | Premier League | AM | 13 | 1026 | 30% | 2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 1550 | 1496 | 1.15 |
| 2017/18 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 14 | 549 | 16% | 0 | 5 | 0.82 | 0.37 | 1445 | 1565 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CM | 30 | 2003 | 59% | 3 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 1481 | 1528 | 0.88 |
| 2016/17 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | SS | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.35 | 1306 | 1521 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | RM | 33 | 2715 | 89% | 6 | 11 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 1388 | 1608 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | CM | 30 | 2111 | 69% | 5 | 4 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 1387 | 1593 | 0.68 |
| 2013/14 | Vitória Setúbal FC | Liga Portugal | CM | 15 | 1231 | 46% | 0 | 6 | 0.44 | 0.38 | 1456 | 1373 | 0.74 |
| 2012/13 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | AM | 1 | 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1360 | 1481 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Konstantinoupoleos | 5 | 303 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 4 | 279 | 2 | 1 | 1302 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 2 | 106 | 1 | 0 | 1429 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 248 | 1 | 0 | 1510 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 5 | 326 | 3 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 5 | 228 | 0 | 0 | 1450 |
| 2023/24 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 868 | 6 | 2 | 1601 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 359 | 0 | 3 | 1479 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 8 | 493 | 0 | 3 | 1748 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 340 | 1 | 1 | 1527 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Футбольный клуб "Локомотив" Москва | 4 | 355 | 0 | 2 | 1702 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 88 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 165 | 0 | 2 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 380 | 1 | 1 | 1586 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Sporting CP | 2 | 166 | 0 | 0 | 1668 |
| 2015/16 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | Sporting CP | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1719 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League | Sporting CP | 6 | 407 | 0 | 1 | 1625 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1702 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denys Garmash Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €1.2M | €300k | fell |
| Stefan Schwab Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €600k | fell |
| Danijel Aleksic Super Lig · 2024 | 33 | €850k | €850k | flat |
| Omar El Kaddouri Super League 1 · 2022 | 32 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Mehmet Topal Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €900k | €100k | fell |
| Luiz Gustavo Super Lig · 2022 | 35 | €1.2M | €350k | fell |
| David Mendes da Silva Super League 1 · 2015 | 33 | €800k | €200k | fell |
| Vadis Odjidja-Ofoe Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 33 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | AEK Athens | Besiktas | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 12 Sept 2025 | Besiktas | AEK Athens | Free / loan | €2.1M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Benfica | Besiktas | €2.0M | €2.1M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Besiktas | Benfica | Free / loan | €2.1M |
| 4 Sept 2024 | Benfica | Besiktas | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 13 Jul 2021 | Inter | Benfica | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Sporting | Inter | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 6 Oct 2020 | Inter | Sporting | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Loko Moscow | Inter | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 27 Aug 2019 | Inter | Loko Moscow | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | West Ham | Inter | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 26 Jan 2018 | Inter | West Ham | Free / loan | €26.0M |
| 28 Aug 2016 | Sporting | Inter | €44.8M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Vitória Setúbal | Sporting B | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 9 Jan 2014 | Sporting B | Vitória Setúbal | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Sporting U19 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Sporting U17 | Sporting U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | FC Porto Youth | Sporting Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.