Onur Bulut

32 yrs · Right-back (also RM) · Türkiye
Basaksehir FK · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 179 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€600k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€143k – €441k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€279k – €787k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€205k – €527k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€162k – €644k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€143k – €441k
Model value (performance-implied)€279k – €787k
Projected value (24 months)€205k – €527k
Dashed line: current market value (€600k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Onur Bulut's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 56

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average32.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €191k vs market €600k
Expected appreciationVery low-48% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.8M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
973 (32% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
32 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1357
Opponent strength
1253
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€205k – €527k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -23% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 973 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Basaksehir FKSuper LigRB1897332%010.090.11125313570.40
2024/25Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigRB1739412%010.230.10124613400.39
2023/24Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigRB28203960%030.130.10127013360.45
2022/23KayserisporSuper LigRB21189058%330.290.27129112550.50
2022/23Beşiktaş Jimnastik KulübüSuper LigRB858618%010.150.11129415170.50
2021/22KayserisporSuper LigRB34273980%180.300.26125612160.42
2020/21Caykur RizesporSuper LigRB1892026%000.000.07127511740.37
2019/20AlanyasporSuper LigRB23123340%330.440.28135113520.45
2017/18SC FreiburgBundesligaRB1371%000.000.15158014151.04
2016/17SC FreiburgBundesligaRM2199933%010.090.25152514441.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingBasaksehir FK5443001338
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü5120001550
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingBeşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü6451101334
2020/21Uefa Europa League QualifyingAlanyaspor15001483
2016/17Dfb PokalSC Freiburg213600—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nicolas N'Koulou
Super League 1 · 2023
33€1.0M€450kfell
Django Warmerdam
Eredivisie · 2024
29€650k€650kflat
Ayila Yussuf
Premier Liga · 2015
31€800k€800kflat
Giandomenico Mesto
Super League 1 · 2016
34€500k€300kfell
Jeffry Fortes
Eredivisie · 2021
32€375k€350kflat
Paíto
Super League 1 · 2013
31€600k€500kflat
Mark Looms
Eredivisie · 2013
32€500k€500kflat
Eric Lichaj
Super Lig · 2021
33€900k€900kflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2025BesiktasBasaksehir€325k€850k
8 Feb 2023KayserisporBesiktas€1.0M€3.0M
19 Jul 2021AlanyasporKayserisporFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2021C. RizesporAlanyasporFree / loan€800k
5 Oct 2020AlanyasporC. RizesporFree / loan€1.1M
30 Jul 2019E. BraunschweigAlanyasporFree / loan€400k
25 Jan 2018FreiburgE. Braunschweig€900k€1.0M
1 Jul 2016VfL BochumFreiburg€1.2M€700k
1 Jul 2012VfL Bochum U19VfL BochumUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011VfL Bochum U17VfL Bochum U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009VfL Bochum Yth.VfL Bochum U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Oestr.-I. Yth.VfL Bochum Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2004Werdohl Yth.Oestr.-I. Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.