
Onur Bulut
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Onur Bulut's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 32.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €191k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 973 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1357
- Opponent strength
- 1253
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €205k – €527k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -3% (IQR -23% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 973 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Basaksehir FK | Super Lig | RB | 18 | 973 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 1253 | 1357 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 17 | 394 | 12% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.10 | 1246 | 1340 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 28 | 2039 | 60% | 0 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1270 | 1336 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 21 | 1890 | 58% | 3 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.27 | 1291 | 1255 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | Super Lig | RB | 8 | 586 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1294 | 1517 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Kayserispor | Super Lig | RB | 34 | 2739 | 80% | 1 | 8 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 1256 | 1216 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | RB | 18 | 920 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1275 | 1174 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | RB | 23 | 1233 | 40% | 3 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.28 | 1351 | 1352 | 0.45 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RB | 1 | 37 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1580 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | RM | 21 | 999 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.25 | 1525 | 1444 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Basaksehir FK | 5 | 443 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 5 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Beşiktaş Jimnastik Kulübü | 6 | 451 | 1 | 0 | 1334 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Alanyaspor | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1483 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 136 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas N'Koulou Super League 1 · 2023 | 33 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
| Django Warmerdam Eredivisie · 2024 | 29 | €650k | €650k | flat |
| Ayila Yussuf Premier Liga · 2015 | 31 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Giandomenico Mesto Super League 1 · 2016 | 34 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Jeffry Fortes Eredivisie · 2021 | 32 | €375k | €350k | flat |
| Paíto Super League 1 · 2013 | 31 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Mark Looms Eredivisie · 2013 | 32 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Eric Lichaj Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €900k | €900k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Besiktas | Basaksehir | €325k | €850k |
| 8 Feb 2023 | Kayserispor | Besiktas | €1.0M | €3.0M |
| 19 Jul 2021 | Alanyaspor | Kayserispor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | C. Rizespor | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €800k |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Alanyaspor | C. Rizespor | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 30 Jul 2019 | E. Braunschweig | Alanyaspor | Free / loan | €400k |
| 25 Jan 2018 | Freiburg | E. Braunschweig | €900k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | VfL Bochum | Freiburg | €1.2M | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | VfL Bochum U19 | VfL Bochum | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | VfL Bochum U17 | VfL Bochum U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | VfL Bochum Yth. | VfL Bochum U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Oestr.-I. Yth. | VfL Bochum Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Werdohl Yth. | Oestr.-I. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.