Hauke Wahl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hauke Wahl's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 8
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 60th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -55% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2591 (85% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1283
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €432k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 328% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -76% to -27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 30 | 2591 | 85% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1494 | 1283 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | FC St. Pauli | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2970 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1501 | 1330 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 3 | 330 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | FC St. Pauli | 2 | 161 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ignasi Miquel Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Joleon Lescott Premier League · 2016 | 34 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fabio Lucioni Serie A · 2020 | 33 | €725k | €600k | flat |
| Aleksandr Belozerov Premier Liga · 2013 | 32 | €700k | €100k | fell |
| Romain Thomas Ligue 1 · 2021 | 33 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Kamil Glik Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Lukas Tesak Premier Liga · 2015 | 30 | €850k | €600k | fell |
| Aytac Sulu Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Holstein Kiel | St. Pauli | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 11 Jul 2018 | FC Ingolstadt | Holstein Kiel | €600k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Heidenheim | FC Ingolstadt | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2017 | FC Ingolstadt | Heidenheim | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2016 | SC Paderborn | FC Ingolstadt | Free / loan | €800k |
| 24 Aug 2015 | Holstein Kiel | SC Paderborn | €500k | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Holstein Kiel | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | D. Dresden U19 | Holst. Kiel U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | D. Dresden U17 | D. Dresden U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | E. Schwerin U17 | D. Dresden U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Schwerin Yth. | E. Schwerin U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Trittau Yth. | Schwerin Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.