Raúl Albiol
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raúl Albiol's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-0.7M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 59.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 40.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €476k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -10% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 502 (15% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1260
- Opponent strength
- 1500
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €372k – €744k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 20 pts; changed club; team strength down (-337 Elo); relative output up 457% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -4% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 502 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 41: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Pisa Sporting Club | Serie A | CB | 8 | 502 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1500 | 1260 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 15 | 1189 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1504 | 1597 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 26 | 2035 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1481 | 1577 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 25 | 2119 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1501 | 1581 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 28 | 2466 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1543 | 1661 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 35 | 3119 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1556 | 1676 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3238 | 95% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1530 | 1610 | 1.16 |
| 2018/19 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1712 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1479 | 1636 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2742 | 80% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1476 | 1704 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 26 | 2297 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1467 | 1736 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1477 | 1701 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 35 | 3098 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1465 | 1615 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2642 | 77% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1489 | 1651 | 0.88 |
| 2012/13 | Real Madrid | Laliga | CB | 18 | 1378 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1495 | 1773 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Pisa Sporting Club | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 3 | 140 | 0 | 0 | 1513 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Villarreal CF | 12 | 1045 | 0 | 0 | 1741 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Super Cup | Villarreal CF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1754 |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 100 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 11 | 1020 | 2 | 0 | 1592 |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Villarreal CF | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 495 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 5 | 450 | 0 | 1 | 1672 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1614 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 461 | 0 | 0 | 1744 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 10 | 892 | 0 | 1 | 1591 |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1631 |
| 2014/15 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1778 |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 533 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1603 |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 5 | 397 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Supercopa | Real Madrid | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1683 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1544 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Molinaro Serie A · 2022 | 39 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Federico Fazio Serie A · 2024 | 37 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Bacary Sagna Serie A · 2018 | 35 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Manuel Pasqual Serie A · 2019 | 37 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Christophe Jallet Ligue 1 · 2020 | 37 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Gonzalo Verdú Laliga · 2023 | 35 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Maurício Liga Portugal · 2013 | 37 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Julien Faussurier Ligue 1 · 2022 | 35 | €300k | €250k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Pisa | Without Club | Unknown | €700k |
| 2 Sept 2025 | Without Club | Pisa | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Villarreal | Without Club | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 4 Jul 2019 | Napoli | Villarreal | €4.0M | €5.0M |
| 21 Jul 2013 | Real Madrid | Napoli | €12.0M | €8.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Valencia | Real Madrid | €15.0M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2005 | Getafe | Valencia | Free / loan | €800k |
| 2 Jul 2004 | Valencia | Getafe | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Valencia B | Valencia | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2003 | Valencia U19 | Valencia B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2002 | Valencia CF You | Valencia U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.