M'Baye Niang

31 yrs · Striker (also LW) · Senegal
Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 188 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
77/100
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€800k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€212k – €888k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€331k – €1.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€306k – €709k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€557k – €976k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€212k – €888k
Model value (performance-implied)€331k – €1.2M
Projected value (24 months)€306k – €709k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates M'Baye Niang's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.95x the positional average in the league (1741 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: 77

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average23.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €419k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-31% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €15.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1741 (57% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.31
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.48
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
24 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1161
Opponent strength
1273
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€306k – €709k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -53% to -47%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1741 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (ATT)
Relative output kept
79%–133%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
58%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigST26174157%420.310.48127311600.40
2023/24Adana DemirsporSuper LigST1699429%810.810.60131512500.45
2023/24FC EmpoliSerie AST1470621%610.891.07154813880.98
2022/23AJ AuxerreLigue 1ST30148743%600.360.57146613140.82
2021/22FC Girondins BordeauxLigue 1ST2276922%300.350.54140313120.86
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST942212%100.210.40144114450.75
2019/20Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST26213485%1020.510.48143215070.82
2018/19Stade Rennais FCLigue 1ST29180153%1150.800.70145614880.82
2017/18Torino FCSerie AST26153845%410.290.38146114810.86
2016/17Watford FCPremier LeagueLW16125437%220.290.42156014031.07
2016/17AC MilanSerie ALW18112433%330.480.37150415190.88
2015/16AC MilanSerie AST16116134%540.700.58147415150.95
2014/15Genoa CFCSerie AST1496728%530.740.63148114920.93
2014/15AC MilanSerie AST5842%000.000.37146115130.93
2013/14Montpellier HSCLigue 1ST19138440%420.390.52148313720.79
2013/14AC MilanSerie AST82377%010.380.38147615600.88
2012/13AC MilanSerie AST2087125%010.100.23135416220.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAdana Demirspor482011425
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueStade Rennais FC399001608
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC5380101501
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueStade Rennais FC9543111532
2017/18Italy CupTorino FC320702—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingAC Milan2180001339
2015/16Italy CupAC Milan525130—
2013/14Uefa Champions League QualifyingAC Milan16001558
2012/13Italy CupAC Milan28510—
2012/13Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan275001771

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Arvydas Novikovas
Super Lig · 2021
31€600k€300kfell
Alexandros Kontos
Super League 1 · 2017
31€400k€150kfell
Christos Eleftheriadis
Super League 1 · 2021
30€400k€200kfell
Antonis Petropoulos
Super League 1 · 2015
29€600k€300kfell
Vidar Örn Kjartansson
Super League 1 · 2023
33€500k€500kflat
Sasa Kajkut
Super League 1 · 2015
31€400k€200kfell
Sofiane Moussa
Scottish Premiership · 2018
30€325k€200kfell
Sandi Krizman
Super League 1 · 2021
32€300k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Aug 2025SampdoriaGenclerbirligiFree / loan€1.0M
15 Jan 2025Wydad ACSampdoriaFree / loan€1.5M
8 Sept 2024FC EmpoliWydad ACFree / loan€2.5M
31 Jan 2024Adana DemirsporFC Empoli€250k€2.7M
9 Aug 2023AJ AuxerreAdana DemirsporFree / loan€2.5M
16 Aug 2022G. BordeauxAJ AuxerreFree / loan€4.0M
24 Sept 2021Stade RennaisG. BordeauxFree / loan€4.5M
30 Jun 2021Al-AhliStade RennaisFree / loan€4.5M
7 Feb 2021Stade RennaisAl-AhliFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2019TorinoStade Rennais€15.0M€12.0M
30 Jun 2019Stade RennaisTorinoFree / loan€12.0M
31 Aug 2018TorinoStade RennaisFree / loan€10.0M
1 Jul 2018AC MilanTorino€12.0M€10.0M
30 Jun 2018TorinoAC MilanFree / loan€10.0M
31 Aug 2017AC MilanTorinoFree / loan€15.0M
30 Jun 2017WatfordAC MilanFree / loan€15.0M
26 Jan 2017AC MilanWatfordFree / loan€15.0M
30 Jun 2015GenoaAC MilanFree / loan€5.0M
21 Jan 2015AC MilanGenoaFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2014MontpellierAC MilanFree / loan€4.5M
1 Jan 2014AC MilanMontpellierFree / loan€5.0M
28 Aug 2012SM CaenAC Milan€3.3M€1.8M
1 Mar 2011SM Caen BSM CaenUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010SM Caen U17SM Caen BUnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2010SM Caen JugendSM Caen U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.