Sam Larsson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sam Larsson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1568 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 16th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €344k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1568 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.55
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €183k – €486k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 22 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -61% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1568 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | ST | 22 | 1568 | 51% | 3 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.55 | 1275 | 1169 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | ST | 29 | 2383 | 74% | 6 | 5 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1291 | 1181 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | LW | 35 | 2572 | 75% | 5 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.28 | 1293 | 1244 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Antalyaspor | Super Lig | LW | 30 | 2134 | 66% | 2 | 4 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 1286 | 1274 | 0.50 |
| 2019/20 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 21 | 955 | 42% | 4 | 2 | 0.57 | 0.32 | 1311 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2018/19 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 32 | 2512 | 82% | 6 | 9 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 1345 | 1502 | 0.61 |
| 2017/18 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | LW | 19 | 1251 | 41% | 4 | 5 | 0.65 | 0.37 | 1289 | 1530 | 0.59 |
| 2016/17 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 31 | 2482 | 81% | 9 | 13 | 0.80 | 0.65 | 1346 | 1266 | 0.54 |
| 2015/16 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 34 | 3003 | 98% | 6 | 8 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 1324 | 1312 | 0.58 |
| 2014/15 | SC Heerenveen | Eredivisie | LW | 21 | 1765 | 58% | 8 | 5 | 0.66 | 0.49 | 1341 | 1367 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 427 | 1 | 2 | 1587 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 343 | 1 | 2 | 1347 |
| 2019/20 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 3 | 87 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 360 | 1 | 3 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2018/19 | Johan Cruijff Schaal | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1636 |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 4 | 239 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 6 | 157 | 0 | 0 | 1778 |
| 2016/17 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 120 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Knvb Beker | SC Heerenveen | 3 | 262 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Idrottsföreningen Kamraterna Göteborg | 6 | 519 | 0 | 1 | 1313 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adis Jahovic Super Lig · 2021 | 34 | €900k | €50k | fell |
| Georgios Manousos Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €400k | €150k | fell |
| Denis Epstein Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Kris Doolan Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Conor Sammon Scottish Premiership · 2018 | 32 | €350k | €150k | fell |
| Issam Jebali Superliga · 2022 | 31 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Marc Fernández Super League 1 · 2021 | 31 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Nicky Clark Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 32 | €375k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sept 2025 | Antalyaspor | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.1M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | DL Pro | Antalyaspor | Free / loan | €2.8M |
| 28 Feb 2020 | Feyenoord | DL Pro | €5.0M | €5.0M |
| 21 Aug 2017 | Heerenveen | Feyenoord | €4.0M | €7.0M |
| 13 Aug 2014 | IFK Göteborg | Heerenveen | €1.5M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2012 | IFK U19 | IFK Göteborg | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.