
Robin Zentner
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Robin Zentner's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-2.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 80th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 877 (29% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1485
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €700k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 65 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -64% (IQR -75% to -49%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 877 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 10 | 877 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1479 | 1485 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1503 | 1515 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1518 | 1489 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1526 | 1496 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 94% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1507 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1516 | 1481 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 22 | 1935 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1517 | 1471 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 10 | 900 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1522 | 1488 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | GK | 15 | 1350 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1514 | 1444 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1335 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jiri Pavlenka Bundesliga · 2024 | 32 | €1.5M | €700k | fell |
| Ilya Abaev Premier Liga · 2015 | 34 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Aitor Fernández Laliga · 2022 | 31 | €2.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| René Adler Bundesliga · 2015 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Timo Horn Bundesliga · 2022 | 29 | €2.0M | €800k | fell |
| Emiliano Viviano Serie A · 2017 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Fernando Pacheco Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Rafael Serie A · 2015 | 33 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2017 | Holstein Kiel | Mainz | Free / loan | €200k |
| 26 Aug 2015 | Mainz | Holstein Kiel | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Mainz | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Mainz 05 U19 | FSV Mainz 05 II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Mainz 05 U17 | Mainz 05 U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Mainz 05 Yth. | Mainz 05 U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Eltville Jgd. | Mainz 05 Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.