Niklas Stark
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Niklas Stark's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 67.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 701 (23% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 68 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1378
- Opponent strength
- 1467
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €751k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 46 pts; team strength down (-104 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -69% to -29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 701 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 14 | 701 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1467 | 1378 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2111 | 69% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1475 | 1483 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 17 | 1087 | 36% | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1510 | 1459 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SV Werder Bremen | Bundesliga | CB | 27 | 2082 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1541 | 1393 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2028 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1501 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 33 | 2793 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1542 | 1446 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1736 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1507 | 1469 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 22 | 1870 | 61% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1533 | 1472 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2210 | 72% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1522 | 1468 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | DM | 27 | 2355 | 77% | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 1546 | 1455 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 21 | 1409 | 46% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1526 | 1457 | 1.02 |
| 2013/14 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Bundesliga | DM | 21 | 1297 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1567 | 1351 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 210 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.13 | 1420 | 1493 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 3 | 241 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | SV Werder Bremen | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 148 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 330 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Hertha BSC | 4 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1454 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 284 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Hertha BSC | 2 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1384 |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Nuremberg | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasim Tagirbekov Premier Liga · 2014 | 30 | €2.4M | €1.3M | fell |
| Jonathan Martins Pereira Ligue 1 · 2017 | 31 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Marc Planus Ligue 1 · 2014 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Christophe Hérelle Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Cote Laliga · 2021 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Abdoulaye Bamba Ligue 1 · 2020 | 30 | €2.0M | €500k | fell |
| Holger Badstuber Bundesliga · 2019 | 30 | €1.5M | €350k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hertha BSC | Werder Bremen | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 24 Aug 2015 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Hertha BSC | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 22 Jan 2013 | Nürnberg U19 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Nürnberg U17 | Nürnberg U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Nürnberg Yth. | Nürnberg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2004 | Neustadt Yth. | Nürnberg Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2002 | Ipsheim Yth. | Neustadt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.