Daniele Rugani

32 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
Juventus FC · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€2.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€770k – €2.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€872k – €3.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€536k – €1.6M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.3M – €2.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€770k – €2.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€872k – €3.4M
Projected value (24 months)€536k – €1.6M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Daniele Rugani's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-3.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average59.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €1.5M vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-45% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €22.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
577 (17% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
59 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1552
Opponent strength
1483
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€536k – €1.6M

Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+165 Elo); relative output up 137% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -77% to -60%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 577 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26ACF FiorentinaSerie ACB632810%000.000.06148315060.93
2025/26Juventus FCSerie ACB62497%000.000.06155516140.93
2024/25Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieCB1570823%000.000.02121615050.50
2023/24Juventus FCSerie ACB17118935%200.150.08145616210.98
2022/23Juventus FCSerie ACB956316%000.000.03146616140.94
2021/22Juventus FCSerie ACB1287926%000.000.03146116230.89
2020/21Cagliari CalcioSerie ACB16100329%110.180.15146613730.90
2020/21Stade Rennais FCLigue 1CB1903%000.000.04130114450.75
2019/20Juventus FCSerie ACB1068820%000.000.02137516430.82
2018/19Juventus FCSerie ACB15135039%200.130.05137517010.78
2017/18Juventus FCSerie ACB22193557%210.140.06141518200.86
2016/17Juventus FCSerie ACB15107832%200.170.06140218320.88
2015/16Juventus FCSerie ACB17116134%000.000.02145818080.95
2014/15FC EmpoliSerie ACB383420100%300.080.09148114130.93

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC2101001755
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAjax Amsterdam8445001506
2024/25Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam218010—
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingAjax Amsterdam19001386
2023/24Italy CupJuventus FC19010—
2022/23Italy CupJuventus FC19000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC190001461
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC4176001590
2021/22Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC1120001771
2021/22Italy CupJuventus FC19010—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueStade Rennais FC117001696
2019/20Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC2180001573
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC4271001627
2018/19Italy CupJuventus FC19000—
2017/18Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC2110001810
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC2180101554
2016/17Italy CupJuventus FC218000—
2016/17Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC1120001556
2015/16Italy CupJuventus FC333000—
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC12001731
2014/15Italy CupFC Empoli19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Davide Santon
Serie A · 2021
30€2.0M€500kfell
Martín Montoya
Laliga · 2023
32€1.2M€450kfell
Jérémy Pied
Ligue 1 · 2020
31€2.0M€800kfell
Giovanni Marchese
Serie A · 2016
32€2.5M€250kfell
Mattia Cassani
Serie A · 2013
30€2.2M€1.0Mfell
Jean-Pascal Mignot
Ligue 1 · 2013
32€1.3M€250kfell
Sidnei
Laliga · 2021
32€2.5M€600kfell
Havard Nordtveit
Bundesliga · 2021
31€1.5M€600kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Jun 2026FiorentinaJuventusFree / loan€2.0M
2 Feb 2026JuventusFiorentinaFree / loan€2.0M
10 Jun 2025AjaxJuventusFree / loan€3.0M
21 Aug 2024JuventusAjaxFree / loan€4.0M
30 Jun 2021CagliariJuventusFree / loan€5.0M
1 Feb 2021JuventusCagliariFree / loan€10.0M
31 Jan 2021Stade RennaisJuventusFree / loan€10.0M
3 Oct 2020JuventusStade RennaisFree / loan€12.0M
30 Jun 2015FC EmpoliJuventusFree / loan€7.5M
1 Aug 2013JuventusFC EmpoliFree / loan€200k
31 Jul 2013FC EmpoliJuventus€4.0M€200k
1 Jul 2013Empoli U19FC EmpoliUnknown€200k
30 Jun 2013Juventus U19Empoli U19Free / loan€200k
1 Aug 2012Empoli U19Juventus U19Free / loan€200k
1 Jul 2011Empoli FC YouthEmpoli U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.