Federico Ceccherini

34 yrs · Centre-back · Italy
US Cremonese · Serie A · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€400k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€114k – €493k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€222k – €951k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€188k – €406k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€271k – €837k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€114k – €493k
Model value (performance-implied)€222k – €951k
Projected value (24 months)€188k – €406k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Federico Ceccherini's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage41.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €270k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-27% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €4.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
481 (14% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.18
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1299
Opponent strength
1534
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€188k – €406k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -68% to -22%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 481 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26US CremoneseSerie ACB948114%010.190.18153412990.93
2023/24Fatih KaragümrükSuper LigCB27205660%100.040.05129312640.45
2022/23Hellas VeronaSerie ACB22142542%200.130.14149413570.94
2021/22Hellas VeronaSerie ACB34236769%100.040.06147914410.89
2020/21Hellas VeronaSerie ACB25174551%010.050.06146213690.90
2020/21ACF FiorentinaSerie ACB32708%000.000.05147214220.90
2019/20ACF FiorentinaSerie ACB1583224%000.000.04138614360.82
2018/19ACF FiorentinaSerie ACB1599229%000.000.04146213840.78
2017/18FC CrotoneSerie ACB37323194%110.060.10148313280.86
2016/17FC CrotoneSerie ACB35310091%100.030.06147413560.88
2013/14US Livorno 1915Serie ACB32271779%000.000.02147612550.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Italy CupHellas Verona12400—
2021/22Italy CupHellas Verona19000—
2020/21Italy CupHellas Verona14500—
2019/20Italy CupACF Fiorentina218000—
2018/19Italy CupACF Fiorentina217000—
2017/18Italy CupFC Crotone19010—
2016/17Italy CupFC Crotone19000—
2013/14Italy CupUS Livorno 191513000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Claiton
Serie A · 2017
33€400k€400kflat
Djamel Mesbah
Serie A · 2017
33€300k€300kflat
Dmitriy Aydov
Premier Liga · 2015
33€200k€50kfell
Alexandre Coeff
Ligue 1 · 2023
31€700k€500kfell
Fabrice Ehret
Ligue 1 · 2013
34€500k€150kfell
Marcin Kamiński
Bundesliga · 2023
31€700k€400kfell
Luca Antonelli
Serie A · 2019
32€500k€200kfell
Felipe Trevizan
Bundesliga · 2019
32€300k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
30 Aug 2024Hellas VeronaCremoneseUnknown€1.0M
30 Jun 2024KaragümrükHellas VeronaFree / loan€1.0M
15 Aug 2023Hellas VeronaKaragümrükFree / loan€1.5M
1 Jul 2021FiorentinaHellas Verona€3.0M€3.5M
30 Jun 2021Hellas VeronaFiorentinaFree / loan€3.5M
5 Oct 2020FiorentinaHellas VeronaFree / loan€2.5M
12 Jul 2018CrotoneFiorentina€3.6M€2.8M
6 Jul 2016AS LivornoCrotone€900k€700k
30 Jun 2012PistoieseAS LivornoFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2011Livorno U19PistoieseFree / loan€75k
1 Jul 2009AS Livorno YoutLivorno U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.