
Federico Ceccherini
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Federico Ceccherini's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 41.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €270k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 481 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1299
- Opponent strength
- 1534
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €188k – €406k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -52% (IQR -68% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 481 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | US Cremonese | Serie A | CB | 9 | 481 | 14% | 0 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 1534 | 1299 | 0.93 |
| 2023/24 | Fatih Karagümrük | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 2056 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1293 | 1264 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 22 | 1425 | 42% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 1494 | 1357 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2367 | 69% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1479 | 1441 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Hellas Verona | Serie A | CB | 25 | 1745 | 51% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1462 | 1369 | 0.90 |
| 2020/21 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1472 | 1422 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 15 | 832 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1386 | 1436 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 15 | 992 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1462 | 1384 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | FC Crotone | Serie A | CB | 37 | 3231 | 94% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.10 | 1483 | 1328 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | FC Crotone | Serie A | CB | 35 | 3100 | 91% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1474 | 1356 | 0.88 |
| 2013/14 | US Livorno 1915 | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2717 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1476 | 1255 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Hellas Verona | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | FC Crotone | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | US Livorno 1915 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claiton Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Djamel Mesbah Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Dmitriy Aydov Premier Liga · 2015 | 33 | €200k | €50k | fell |
| Alexandre Coeff Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Fabrice Ehret Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Marcin Kamiński Bundesliga · 2023 | 31 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Luca Antonelli Serie A · 2019 | 32 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Felipe Trevizan Bundesliga · 2019 | 32 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2024 | Hellas Verona | Cremonese | Unknown | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Karagümrük | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 15 Aug 2023 | Hellas Verona | Karagümrük | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona | €3.0M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Hellas Verona | Fiorentina | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Fiorentina | Hellas Verona | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 12 Jul 2018 | Crotone | Fiorentina | €3.6M | €2.8M |
| 6 Jul 2016 | AS Livorno | Crotone | €900k | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2012 | Pistoiese | AS Livorno | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Livorno U19 | Pistoiese | Free / loan | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2009 | AS Livorno Yout | Livorno U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.