Mory Diaw
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mory Diaw's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-0.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.8M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Above average | 61.5th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €359k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2655 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 62 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1361
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €274k – €797k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -61% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | GK | 30 | 2655 | 87% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 1472 | 1361 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Clermont Foot 63 | Ligue 1 | GK | 30 | 2700 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1478 | 1315 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | Clermont Foot 63 | Ligue 1 | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1445 | 1426 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Senegal | 2 | 117 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Louis Leca Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.0M | €1.0M | flat |
| Alex Cordaz Serie A · 2017 | 34 | €1.0M | €400k | fell |
| Rafael Bracali Liga Portugal · 2013 | 32 | €1.7M | €700k | fell |
| Kossi Agassa Ligue 1 · 2013 | 35 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Alexandre Oukidja Ligue 1 · 2020 | 32 | €1.6M | €1.2M | fell |
| Yuriy Zhevnov Premier Liga · 2015 | 34 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Vincent Enyeama Ligue 1 · 2017 | 35 | €1.0M | €200k | fell |
| Gianluca Pegolo Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2025 | Clermont Foot | Le Havre AC | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Rodez AF | Clermont Foot | Free / loan | €800k |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Clermont Foot | Rodez AF | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Lausanne-Sport | Clermont Foot | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | United Zürich | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2019 | Without Club | United Zürich | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Dec 2017 | Loko Plovdiv | Without Club | Unknown | €250k |
| 8 Jul 2017 | Mafra | Loko Plovdiv | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSG | Mafra | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Paris SG B | PSG | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Paris SG U19 | Paris SG B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Versailles U17 | Paris SG U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.